Mayer, Timothy D. and Seth W. Naman, 2011. Streamflow Response to Climate as Influenced by Geology and Elevation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):724‐738. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00537.x Abstract:  This study examines the regional streamflow response in 25 predominately unregulated basins to warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions over the last half century in the Klamath Basin of California and Oregon. Geologic controls of streamflow in the region result in two general stream types: surface‐dominated and groundwater‐dominated basins. Surface‐dominated basins were further differentiated into rain basins and snowmelt basins on the basis of elevation and timing of winter runoff. Streamflow characteristics and response to climate vary with stream type, as discussed in the study. Warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions have caused significantly earlier runoff peaks in both snowmelt and groundwater basins in the region. In the groundwater basins, the streamflow response to changes in snowpack is smoothed and delayed and the effects are extended longer in the summer. Our results indicate that absolute decreases in July‐September base flows are significantly greater, by an order of magnitude, in groundwater basins compared to surface‐dominated basins. The declines are important because groundwater basins sustain Upper Klamath Lake inflows and mainstem river flows during the typically dry summers of the area. Upper Klamath Lake April‐September net inflows have decreased an estimated 16% or 84 thousand acre‐feet (103.6 Mm3) since 1961, with the summer months showing proportionately more decline. These changes will exacerbate water supply problems for agriculture and natural resources in the region.

Since the 1940s, snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased throughout the Pacific Northwest, while water use has increased. Climate has been proposed as the primary cause of base-flow decline in the Scott River, an important coho salmon rearing tributary in the Klamath Basin. We took a comparative-basin approach to estimating the relative contributions of climatic and non-climatic factors to this decline. We used permutation tests to compare discharge in 5 streams and 16 snow courses between ''historic'' (1942-1976) and ''modern'' (1977-2005) time periods, defined by cool and warm phases, respectively, of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. April 1 SWE decreased significantly at most snow courses lower than 1,800 m in elevation and increased slightly at higher elevations. Correspondingly, base flow decreased significantly in the two streams with the lowest latitude-adjusted elevation and increased slightly in two higher-elevation streams. Base-flow decline in the Scott River, the only study stream heavily utilized for irrigation, was larger than that in all other streams and larger than predicted by elevation. Based on comparison with a neighboring stream draining wilderness, we estimate that 39% of the observed 10 Mm 3 decline in July 1-October 22 discharge in the Scott River is explained by regional-scale climatic factors. The remainder of the decline is attributable to local factors, which include an increase in irrigation withdrawal from 48 to 103 Mm 3 ⁄ year since the 1950s.(KEY TERMS: surface water hydrology; climate variability ⁄ change; rivers ⁄ streams; Klamath River; salmon; permutation tests.)Van Kirk

We conducted a literature review on predation by hatchery yearling salmonids on wild subyearling salmonids in the western United States. The review included 14 studies from the Pacific Northwest and California. In most instances, predation by hatchery yearling salmonids on wild subyearling salmonids occurred at low levels. However, when multiple factors contributing to the incidence of predation were met, localized areas of heavy predation were noted. Total prey consumed ranged from 456 to 111 000 subyearlings for the few studies in which enough information was gathered to make the estimate. We examined two of these studies in more detail: one detecting relatively low predation in four western Washington rivers and one detecting relatively high predation in the Trinity River in northern California. In the case of the rivers in western Washington, over 70% of wild subyearlings had migrated by the time hatchery steelhead were planted and those remaining had grown large enough to reduce their vulnerability to predation. In the case of the Trinity River, less than 20% of wild subyearlings had migrated by the time hatchery steelhead were planted and most were small enough to remain highly vulnerable to predation. We found that managers can effectively minimize the predation rate of hatchery yearling salmonids by reducing the spatial or temporal overlap of predator and prey. Unknown is the extent to which low predation rates, which likely occur in most places hatchery yearlings are released, might still negatively impact prey populations that are at low abundance because of other anthropogenic factors.

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