We propose a probabilistic model discovery method for identifying ordinary differential equations governing the dynamics of observed multivariate data. Our method is based on the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework, where models are expressed as sparse linear combinations of pre-specified candidate functions. Promoting parsimony through sparsity leads to interpretable models that generalize to unknown data. Instead of targeting point estimates of the SINDy coefficients, we estimate these coefficients via sparse Bayesian inference. The resulting method, uncertainty quantification SINDy (UQ-SINDy), quantifies not only the uncertainty in the values of the SINDy coefficients due to observation errors and limited data, but also the probability of inclusion of each candidate function in the linear combination. UQ-SINDy promotes robustness against observation noise and limited data, interpretability (in terms of model selection and inclusion probabilities) and generalization capacity for out-of-sample forecast. Sparse inference for UQ-SINDy employs Markov chain Monte Carlo, and we explore two sparsifying priors: the spike and slab prior , and the regularized horseshoe prior . UQ-SINDy is shown to discover accurate models in the presence of noise and with orders-of-magnitude less data than current model discovery methods, thus providing a transformative method for real-world applications which have limited data.

We propose a probabilistic model discovery method for identifying ordinary differential equations (ODEs) governing the dynamics of observed multivariate data. Our method is based on the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework, in which target ODE models are expressed as a sparse linear combinations of pre-specified candidate functions. Promoting parsimony through sparsity in SINDy leads to interpretable models that generalize to unknown data. Instead of targeting point estimates of the SINDy (linear combination) coefficients, in this work we estimate these coefficients via sparse Bayesian inference. The resulting method, uncertainty quantification SINDy (UQ-SINDy), quantifies not only the uncertainty in the values of the SINDy coefficients due to observation errors and limited data, but also the probability of inclusion of each candidate function in the linear combination. UQ-SINDy promotes robustness against observation noise and limited data, interpretability (in terms of model selection and inclusion probabilities), and generalization capacity for out-of-sample forecast. Sparse inference for UQ-SINDy employs Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and we explore two sparsifying priors: the spike-and-slab prior, and the regularized horseshoe prior. We apply UQ-SINDy to synthetic nonlinear data sets from a Lotka-Volterra model and a nonlinear oscillator, and to a real-world data set of lynx and hare populations. We find that UQ-SINDy is able to discover accurate and meaningful models even in the presence of noise and limited data samples.

Time-delay embedding and dimensionality reduction are powerful techniques for discovering effective coordinate systems to represent the dynamics of physical systems. Recently, it has been shown that models identified by dynamic mode decomposition on time-delay coordinates provide linear representations of strongly nonlinear systems, in the so-called Hankel alternative view of Koopman (HAVOK) approach. Curiously, the resulting linear model has a matrix representation that is approximately antisymmetric and tridiagonal; for chaotic systems, there is an additional forcing term in the last component. In this paper, we establish a new theoretical connection between HAVOK and the Frenet–Serret frame from differential geometry, and also develop an improved algorithm to identify more stable and accurate models from less data. In particular, we show that the sub- and super-diagonal entries of the linear model correspond to the intrinsic curvatures in the Frenet–Serret frame. Based on this connection, we modify the algorithm to promote this antisymmetric structure, even in the noisy, low-data limit. We demonstrate this improved modelling procedure on data from several nonlinear synthetic and real-world examples.

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Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a data-driven method that models high-dimensional time series as a sum of spatiotemporal modes, where the temporal modes are constrained by linear dynamics. For nonlinear dynamical systems exhibiting strongly coherent structures, DMD can be a useful approximation to extract dominant, interpretable modes. In many domains with large spatiotemporal data-including fluid dynamics, video processing, and finance-the dynamics of interest are often perturbations about fixed points or equilibria, which motivates the application of DMD to centered (i.e. mean-subtracted) data. In this work, we show that DMD with centered data is equivalent to incorporating an affine term in the dynamic model and is not equivalent to computing a discrete Fourier transform. Importantly, DMD with centering can always be used to compute eigenvalue spectra of the dynamics. However, in many cases DMD without centering cannot model the corresponding dynamics, most notably if the dynamics have full effective rank. Additionally, we generalize the notion of centering to extracting arbitrary, but known, fixed frequencies from the data. We corroborate these theoretical results numerically on three nonlinear examples: the Lorenz system, a surveillance video, and brain recordings. Since centering the data is simple and computationally efficient, we recommend it as a preprocessing step before DMD; furthermore, we suggest that it can be readily used in conjunction with many other popular implementations of the DMD algorithm.