This paper critically surveys the large and growing literature estimating the elasticity of taxable income with respect to marginal tax rates (ETI) using tax return data. First, we provide a theoretical framework showing under what assumptions this elasticity can be used as a sufficient statistic for efficiency and optimal tax analysis. We discuss what other parameters should be estimated when the elasticity is not a sufficient statistic. Second, we discuss conceptually the key issues that arise in the empirical estimation of the elasticity of taxable income using the example of the 1993 top individual income tax rate increase in the United States to illustrate those issues. Third, we provide a critical discussion of most of the taxable income elasticities studies to date, both in the United States and abroad, in light of the theoretical and empirical framework we laid out. Finally, we discuss avenues for future research.

This paper critically surveys the large and growing literature estimating the elasticity of taxable income with respect to marginal tax rates (ETI) using tax return data. First, we provide a theoretical framework showing under what assumptions this elasticity can be used as a sufficient statistic for efficiency and optimal tax analysis. We discuss what other parameters should be estimated when the elasticity is not a sufficient statistic. Second, we discuss conceptually the key issues that arise in the empirical estimation of the elasticity of taxable income using the example of the 1993 top individual income tax rate increase in the United States to illustrate those issues. Third, we provide a critical discussion of most of the taxable income elasticities studies to date, both in the United States and abroad, in light of the theoretical and empirical framework we laid out. Finally, we discuss avenues for future research.

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Over the past two decades, the elasticity of taxable income has emerged as the central parameter for assessing efficiency and revenue implications from changes to tax policy. This article estimates short-and longer-run responses of taxable (and gross) income to changes in tax rates using panels of U.S. tax returns for the 1990s. With the richest set of income controls, income-weighted elasticity estimates range from 0.19 to 0.33, depending on whether responses are measured over one-or three-year intervals. An alternative approach designed to capture delayed and anticipatory responses yields much larger estimates-ranging from 0.43 over the short term and from 0.78 to 1.46 over the longer term. A continuing obstacle to identification encountered here is that the income controls most likely to control for mean reversion and divergence within the income distribution are also the most likely to absorb independent variation in tax rates, also needed for identification.

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