The method of estimation and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems was developed. The essence of the method is the analysis of the current state of the object and short-term forecasting of the object state. Objective and complete analysis is achieved by using improved fuzzy temporal models of the object state and an improved procedure for processing the original data under uncertainty. Also, the possibility of objective and complete analysis is achieved through an improved procedure for forecasting the object state and an improved procedure for learning evolving artificial neural networks. The concepts of fuzzy cognitive model are related by subsets of influence fuzzy degrees, arranged in chronological order, taking into account the time lags of the corresponding components of the multidimensional time series. The method is based on fuzzy temporal models and evolving artificial neural networks. The peculiarity of the method is the possibility of taking into account the type of a priori uncertainty about the object state (full awareness of the object state, partial awareness of the object state and complete uncertainty about the object state). The possibility to clarify information about the object state is achieved using an advanced training procedure. It consists in training the synaptic weights of the artificial neural network, the type and parameters of the membership function, as well as the architecture of individual elements and the architecture of the artificial neural network as a whole. The object state forecasting procedure allows conducting multidimensional analysis, consideration, and indirect influence of all components of a multidimensional time series with their different time shifts relative to each other under uncertainty. The method provides an increase in data processing efficiency at the level of 15–25% using additional advanced procedures.
The paper presents the research of plastic expansion of a pipe workpiece by punches of various configurations. It is shown that interest in this process is caused by the development of oil production, where there is a need to increase the diameter of well pipes, the automobile industry, where the protection of the driver and passengers in case of accidents comes first. Here, stable plastic deformation plays an important role as a good absorber of kinetic energy, etc. Data on the problems of expanding pipe ends are given, where special attention is paid to the destruction of the end in the form of localization of deformations and appearance of a longitudinal crack. To eliminate this phenomen onvarious technological methods are used. Here the influence of the design and shape of the punch on the localization of deformations along the thickness of the workpiece is researched. Several spatial outlines of the tool are proposed to create an effective reloading of the pipe workpiece in the deformation zone. Based on numerical modeling, the distribution of stresses according to Mises, the displacement of the end of the semi-finished product and logarithmic deformations in the radial direction is shown for each standard size of the punch. Comparative results reveal an increase in the thickness of the workpiece in the dangerous section for all presented punches. The comparison was carried out with a reference tool that has a straight generatrix of a tapered surface. The best results are shown by a punch with an enlarged generatrix at the end of the working stroke. Attention is focused on conducting further research in order to study the possibility of overcritical deformation by the proposed tool.
Manufacturing companies of electronic control systems of diesel engines protect access to a program operation algorithm of the regulator that makes impossible adjustments and settings of its work, for example, at re-equipment or operational development of a new diesel engine. Therefore, it is important to acknowledge the solution of the scientific and technical problem of an effective and reliable system creation of electronic control of diesel fuel supply with an open program algorithm of its work. During the current research, settlement and experimental studies of a diesel engine supplied with a system of electronic control of a crankshaft rotation frequency developed by the authors show rather high adequacy in results. The dynamic mathematical model of the single-cylinder diesel engine supplied with the electronic regulator of rotation frequency has been developed and verified.
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