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The Russian–Ukrainian war is a dramatic effect of the growing imbalances and instability of the global economic and political order, together with other effects that this contribution analyzes. This paper in fact offers empirical evidence of a rampant “global protectionism”, the slowdown of the world’s economy in the long term, and the changing structure of global value chains. The paper also seeks to link these manifestations together in a historical perspective, considering the results of previous studies that adopted the comparative historical approach. Although there are profound differences between today’s globalized economy and its historical equivalents, learning from the past should not be precluded, as it can help avoid dangerous paths from being followed that could lead to universally undesired outcomes in the future. The aim of the paper is to open a discussion on the criteria that are needed to inform and develop an economic and industrial policy that is aware of the seriousness of future risks and capable of facing such risks with the necessary wisdom, through the concerted support of the major countries, and through international inter-state collaboration.

This paper investigates the role of geographical and temporary proximity in the location and co-location decisions of new manufacturing activities by foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs). Empirical analysis confirms that foreign MNEs co-locate their new manufacturing plants with their plants already operating in the same activity, while geographical proximity exerts a much weaker role when the latter operate in other manufacturing and services activities. This is especially true in the case of knowledge intensive business services, where temporary proximity is more easily obtainable through the travelling and meeting of professionals. Moreover, a spatial econometric extension of our analysis confirms a geographical decay effect for intra-firm co-location with activities located in contiguous provinces.

No abstract

The Russian–Ukrainian war is a dramatic effect of the growing imbalances and instability of the global economic and political order, together with other effects that this contribution analyzes. This paper in fact offers empirical evidence of a rampant “global protectionism”, the slowdown of the world’s economy in the long term, and the changing structure of global value chains. The paper also seeks to link these manifestations together in a historical perspective, considering the results of previous studies that adopted the comparative historical approach. Although there are profound differences between today’s globalized economy and its historical equivalents, learning from the past should not be precluded, as it can help avoid dangerous paths from being followed that could lead to universally undesired outcomes in the future. The aim of the paper is to open a discussion on the criteria that are needed to inform and develop an economic and industrial policy that is aware of the seriousness of future risks and capable of facing such risks with the necessary wisdom, through the concerted support of the major countries, and through international inter-state collaboration. This article was published in English openly online on July 4, 2022 in "Journal Journal of Industrial and Business Economics" ("Economia e Politica Industriale"): Mariotti, Sergio (2022, July 4). A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-022-00219-z Translated into Ukrainian with the author's permission and published on Open Access conditions based on the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0.