A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past

Abstract

The Russian–Ukrainian war is a dramatic effect of the growing imbalances and instability of the global economic and political order, together with other effects that this contribution analyzes. This paper in fact offers empirical evidence of a rampant “global protectionism”, the slowdown of the world’s economy in the long term, and the changing structure of global value chains. The paper also seeks to link these manifestations together in a historical perspective, considering the results of previous studies that adopted the comparative historical approach. Although there are profound differences between today’s globalized economy and its historical equivalents, learning from the past should not be precluded, as it can help avoid dangerous paths from being followed that could lead to universally undesired outcomes in the future. The aim of the paper is to open a discussion on the criteria that are needed to inform and develop an economic and industrial policy that is aware of the seriousness of future risks and capable of facing such risks with the necessary wisdom, through the concerted support of the major countries, and through international inter-state collaboration.

Hegemonic Sanctions and Global Economic Ramifications in the Context of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: A Commentary

“…What is unravelling before our eyes is an explicit and inevitable struggle for power, position, and role. In this context, we need to consider the development of a novel multipolar system that not only consists of many hegemonic players (Mariotti, 2022) some of whom, such as China, India 14 and Pakistan, 15 are new, but also of large regional powers such as Iran and Turkey. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict suggests that the power redistribution that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union led neither a stable new equilibrium nor to a formally or informally agreed modus vivendi.…”

Too much of a good thing? Russia-EU international trade relations at times of war

“…In the meanwhile, what will happen to Russia and its economic relations with the EU and with other countries? In a rapidly changing scenario for the world economy and with high risks of increased fragmentation of world markets also because of the growth of “special interest policies” (on this, see also Mariotti, 2022 , in this same Special Section), this is a very relevant and difficult question. Because of its size, and especially its historical and military role (see also George & Sandler, 2022 , in this same Special Section), Russia might still deeply affect world balances.…”

The impact of financial digitalization on ensuring the economic security of a country at war: New measurement vectors

“…The study analyzed the stock markets of 86 countries and the influence of geopolitical, economic, institutional, humanitarian, industrial, and firm-related factors on them, as well as investigated the nature of heterogeneous abnormal returns for listed firms around the explosion of the war. Mariotti (2022) argues that the Russian-Ukrainian war is a dramatic consequence of the growing imbalance and instability of the global economic and political order and empirically proves the slowdown of the world's economy in the long term, and the changing structure of global value chains. Lim et al (2022) describe the impact of war on business through the lens of the Ukrainian-Russian war, the consequences of which are the restriction of access to essential goods, an increase in the level of unemployment, a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, and inflation.…”