In the context of stochastic uncertainty and the increasing complexity of logistics processes in the retail sector, managers face a problem in obtaining accurate forecasts for the dynamics of changes in key business performance indicators. The purpose of the present work is to assess the impact of risk events and unstable conditions on the level of quality of supply chain services and economic indicators of the retail trade network. Using the anyLogistix software tool, a simulation model was constructed that allows assessing operational risks and their impact on key indicators of the supply chain using the bullwhip effect. Besides, a statistical model of the impact of the ripple effect in the event of failures caused by the occurrence of a man-made risk event and the shutdown of production of one of the suppliers on the financial, customer, and operational performance indicators of the supply chain of grocery retail. The results obtained show that the main factors of changes in the supply chain are operational risks associated with fluctuations in demand and order execution time by the distribution center. With a sufficiently high level of occurrence, their impact on productivity and quality of service is low because they can be eliminated in a short time. The simulation results show that the most tangible risks for the food retail supply chain are supply chain failures, whose consequences require significant coordinating efforts and longer recovery times, as well as additional investments. For example, events, such as a fire in one distribution center and the shutdown of production for 1 week of one of the suppliers of dairy products will lead to the loss of USD 181.75 million by the grocery retailer, which is 3% of the expected revenue. We believe that risk management in supply chains is becoming increasingly complex, and to make effective managerial decisions, it is necessary to constantly improve the tools that combine analytical and optimization methods, as well as simulation modeling.
A key structural issue in the innovation-driven development of Russia's regional industrial complexes (RIC) to face over the next 5-10 years is "filling", in the context of the contribution of industrial production to GDP, the niche currently occupied by the resource and raw materials sector of the national economy (in particular, enterprises within the fuel-and-energy complex). This issue of filling the gaps in GDP is quite complex and requires considerable resources and significant statutory effort. Ideally, this process must involve galvanizing RIC's use of innovative technology, with a special strategic focus on creating high-tech industrial production operations. Since RICs are a key subject of the innovations market, it may be worth exploring the effect of the innovations market on these complexes, while also investigating their own self-development processes in the context of organizing and implementing innovation activity. It is also worth noting that the effect of the innovations market on RICs is manifested in all major segments within the innovations market: federal, sectoral, regional, corporate, and intra-firm.
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In the contemporary world, tourism is one of the most profitable and fast-growing sectors of the economy, being a stabilizer of a state’s social economic development, providing an inflow of foreign currencies, improving foreign trade and influencing the development of related sectors. The establishment of a stable tourist services market helps resolve the problem of unemployment and social support of the poor. The study’s purpose is to review seasonality factors related to the creation of a positive image of the children’s leisure and tourism system in the Russian Federation. During the study, the authors applied the systematic approach, strategic approach, analytical approach, methods of comparison and analogy, expert estimates of media monitoring and qualitative methods of text analysis. Main results relate to the theoretical substantiation and the development of methodical recommendations on information media support of the children’s leisure and tourism system. The substantiation of novelty is as follows: the authors found factors of overcoming the lack of a systematic approach and chaotic nature of information media events aimed at supporting the children’s leisure and tourism system. As a result, measures to improve the efficiency of information media support of the events conducted by children’s leisure and tourism organizers depend on the competence and qualification of employees who are in charge of children’s entertainment.
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