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Concern about the impact of fishing on ecosystems and fisheries production is increasing (1, 2). Strategies to reduce these impacts while addressing the growing need for food security (3) include increasing selectivity (1, 2): capturing species, sexes, and sizes in proportions that differ from their occurrence in the ecosystem. Increasing evidence suggests that more selective fishing neither maximizes production nor minimizes impacts (4-7). Balanced harvesting would more effectively mitigate adverse ecological effects of fishing while supporting sustainable fisheries. This strategy, which challenges present management paradigms, distributes a moderate mortality from fishing across the widest possible range of species, stocks, and sizes in an ecosystem, in proportion to their natural productivity (8), so that the relative size and species composition is maintained.

The FAO and other guidelines available for the implementation of the ecosystem approach to fisheries are briefly reviewed. The paper recalls the high-level policy foundations and the main issues, related to fisheries and non-fishing impacts as well as to natural variability. It reviews the central paradigm and the extension of the conventional management required to better account for ecosystem considerations. It focuses on the policy, strategy development, and implementation processes required to adapt the fuzzy principles and conceptual goals to the reality of specific situations, addressing briefly the central issues of capacity-building, management costs, realistic time frames, and the role of science, and concludes with comments on the respective roles of the various types of stakeholders.

World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050. The growing need for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for fisheries products from marine sources, whose productivity is already highly stressed by excessive fishing pressure, growing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation and climate change. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change. This paper looks at global fisheries production, the state of resources, contribution to food security and governance. It describes the main changes affecting the sector, including geographical expansion, fishing capacity-building, natural variability, environmental degradation and climate change. It identifies drivers and future challenges, while suggesting how new science, policies and interventions could best address those challenges.

Rice, J. C., and Garcia, S. M. 2011. Fisheries, food security, climate change, and biodiversity: characteristics of the sector and perspectives on emerging issues. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1343–1353. This paper reviews global projections to 2050 for human population growth and food production, both assuming constant climate and taking account of climate-related changes in growing conditions. It also reviews statistics on nutritional protein requirements, as well as how those requirements are met by fish on a regional basis. To meet projected food requirements, the production of fish has to increase by ∼50% from current levels. The paper also summarizes the main pressures on marine biodiversity that are expected to result from the impacts of changing climate on marine ecosystems, as well as the management measures and policy actions promoted to address those pressures. It highlights that most of the actions being proposed to address pressures on marine biodiversity are totally incompatible with the actions considered necessary to meet future food security needs, particularly in less developed parts of the world. The paper does not propose a solution to these conflicting pulls on policies for conservation and sustainable use. Rather, it emphasizes that there is a need for the two communities of experts and policy-makers to collaborate in finding a single compatible suite of policies and management measures, to allow coherent action on these crucial and difficult problems.

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In terrestrial and coastal systems, the mitigation hierarchy is widely and increasingly used to guide actions to ensure that no net loss of biodiversity ensues from development. We develop a conceptual model which applies this approach to the mitigation of marine megafauna by‐catch in fisheries, going from defining an overarching goal with an associated quantitative target, through avoidance, minimization, remediation to offsetting. We demonstrate the framework's utility as a tool for structuring thinking and exposing uncertainties. We draw comparisons between debates ongoing in terrestrial situations and in by‐catch mitigation, to show how insights from each could inform the other; these are the hierarchical nature of mitigation, out‐of‐kind offsets, research as an offset, incentivizing implementation of mitigation measures, societal limits and uncertainty. We explore how economic incentives could be used throughout the hierarchy to improve the achievement of by‐catch goals. We conclude by highlighting the importance of clear agreed goals, of thinking beyond single species and individual jurisdictions to account for complex interactions and policy leakage, of taking uncertainty explicitly into account and of thinking creatively about approaches to by‐catch mitigation in order to improve outcomes for conservation and fishers. We suggest that the framework set out here could be helpful in supporting efforts to improve by‐catch mitigation efforts and highlight the need for a full empirical application to substantiate this.

Predicting global fisheries is a high-order challenge but predictions have been made and updates are needed. Past forecasts, present trends and perspectives of key parameters of the fisheries--including potential harvest, state of stocks, supply and demand, trade, fishing technology and governance--are reviewed in detail, as the basis for new forecasts and forecasting performance assessment. The future of marine capture fisheries will be conditioned by the political, social and economic evolution of the world within which they operate. Consequently, recent global scenarios for the future world are reviewed, with the emphasis on fisheries. The main driving forces (e.g. global economic development, demography, environment, public awareness, information technology, energy, ethics) including aquaculture are described. Outlooks are provided for each aspect of the fishery sector. The conclusion puts these elements in perspective and offers the authors' personal interpretation of the possible future pathway of fisheries, the uncertainty about it and the still unanswered questions of direct relevance in shaping that future.