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In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. We analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and serological data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. Our model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. Community contacts are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment is crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion. In addition to social distancing, sufficient capacity for extensive testing and contact tracing is essential for successful mitigation.

Background COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution. Aim We examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups. Methods The relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death. Results In the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population. Discussion During the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.

Background: There is controversy whether taking β-blockers or ACE inhibitors (ACEI) is a risk factor for more severe systemic insect sting reactions (SSR) and whether it increases the number or severity of adverse events (AE) during venom immunotherapy (VIT). Methods: In this open, prospective, observational, multicenter trial, we recruited patients with a history of a SSR and indication for VIT. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate whether patients taking β-blockers or ACEI show more systemic AE during VIT compared to patients without such treatment. Results: In total, 1,425 patients were enrolled and VIT was performed in 1,342 patients. Of all patients included, 388 (27.2%) took antihypertensive (AHT) drugs (10.4% took β-blockers, 11.9% ACEI, 5.0% β-blockers and ACEI). Only 5.6% of patients under AHT treatment experienced systemic AE during VIT as compared with 7.4% of patients without these drugs (OR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.43–1.22, p=0.25). The severity of the initial sting reaction was not affected by the intake of β-blockers or ACEI (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 0.89–1.46, p=0.29). In total, 210 (17.7%) patients were re-stung during VIT and 191 (91.0%) tolerated the sting without systemic symptoms. Of the 19 patients with VIT treatment failure, 4 took β-blockers, none an ACEI. Conclusions: This trial provides robust evidence that taking β-blockers or ACEI does neither increase the frequency of systemic AE during VIT nor aggravate SSR. Moreover, results suggest that these drugs do not impair effectiveness of VIT. (Funded by Medical University of Graz, Austria; Clinicaltrials.gov number, NCT04269629)

Background and Objectives To monitor and document the endemicity and disease burden of acute hepatitis A in the area of an ongoing vaccine effectiveness study in León, Nicaragua. Methods At community health centres in León, all children, adolescents and young adults presenting with jaundice and/or other clinical signs of hepatitis were offered free serologic screening (hepatitis A, B and C) and blood tests for liver enzymes and bilirubin. Clinical and socioeconomic data were collected with a structured questionnaire. Diagnosis of acute hepatitis A was confirmed by anti-HAV IgM testing. Using logistic regression we compared the characteristics and living conditions of acute hepatitis A cases with those of non-cases. Results Of 557 eligible subjects enrolled between May 2006 and March 2010, 315 (56.6%) were diagnosed with hepatitis A, 80.6% of them ≤10 years and five >18 years of age. No severe cases were encountered. Apart from jaundice (95.6%) and other signs of hepatitis A (fever, pale stool, dark urine, nausea, vomiting, anorexia), two thirds of patients had moderately raised liver enzymes. Cases occurred throughout the year, with highest incidences from August to March. Poor sanitary conditions and crowding were the main risk factors. Conclusions In the study area, hepatitis A is still highly endemic in young and school age children living in low socioeconomic conditions. There are, however, first indications that the endemicity level is shifting from high to high-intermediate.

Heparin-associated thrombocytopenia (HAT) is a relative frequent complication of thromboembolic prophylaxis and therapy. There is good evidence that the more severe HAT Type II is caused by an antibody dependent on polysulfated oligosaccharide epitopes. At present, low molecular weight heparins are used with varying success in patients with HAT that require further anticoagulation, although there are several known cases of cross reactivity between standard and low molecular weight heparins. Using our present case as an example, we show that the In-vitro- diagnostic of cross-reactivity is an indispensable precondition for any sufficient therapy. Additionally, we give support to previous findings that the low-grade sulfated heparinoid Org 10,172 shows no (or less) cross reactivity with standard or low molecular weight heparins. Thus, it might be the most appropriate choice if an anticoagulation is necessary before the results of In-vitro-diagnostics are available.

Background. Our work was motivated by the need to, given serum availability and/or financial resources, decide on which samples to test for different pathogens in a serum bank. Simulationbased sample size calculations were performed to determine the age-based sampling structures and optimal allocation of a given number of samples for testing across various age groups best suited to estimate key epidemiological parameters (e.g., seroprevalence or force of infection) with acceptable precision levels in a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey.Methods. Statistical and mathematical models and three age-based sampling structures (surveybased structure, population-based structure, uniform structure) were used. Our calculations are based on Belgian serological survey data collected in 2002 where testing was done, amongst others, for the presence of IgG antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella, for which a national mass immunisation programme was introduced in 1985 in Belgium, and against varicella-zoster virus and parvovirus B19 for which the endemic equilibrium assumption is tenable in Belgium.Results. The optimal age-based sampling structure to use in the sampling of a serological survey as well as the optimal allocation distribution varied depending on the epidemiological parameter of interest for a given infection and between infections. Conclusions.When estimating key epidemiological parameters with acceptable levels of precision within the context of a single cross-sectional serological survey, attention should be given to the age-based sampling structure. Simulation-based sample size calculations in combination with mathematical modelling can be utilised for choosing the optimal allocation of a given number of samples over various age groups. 4

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