Natural resources of the Mekong River are essential to livelihood of tens of millions of people. Previous studies highlighted that upstream hydro-infrastructure developments impact flow regime, sediment and nutrient transport, bed and bank stability, fish productivity, biodiversity and biology of the basin. Here, we show that tidal amplification and saline water intrusion in the Mekong Delta develop with alarming paces. While offshore M2 tidal amplitude increases by 1.2–2 mm yr−1 due to sea level rise, tidal amplitude within the delta is increasing by 2 cm yr−1 and salinity in the channels is increasing by 0.2–0.5 PSU yr−1. We relate these changes to 2–3 m bed level incisions in response to sediment starvation, caused by reduced upstream sediment supply and downstream sand mining, which seems to be four times more than previous estimates. The observed trends cannot be explained by deeper channels due to relative sea level rise; while climate change poses grave natural hazards in the coming decades, anthropogenic forces drive short-term trends that already outstrip climate change effects. Considering the detrimental trends identified, it is imperative that the Mekong basin governments converge to effective transboundary management of the natural resources, before irreversible damage is made to the Mekong and its population.

Rising temperatures, rapid urbanization and soaring demand for natural resources threaten deltas worldwide and make them vulnerable to rising seas, subsidence, droughts, floods, and salt intrusion. However, climate change projections in deltas often address climate-driven stressors in isolation and disregard parallel anthropogenic processes, leading to insufficient socio-political drive. Here, using a combination of process-based numerical models that integrate both climatic and anthropogenic environmental stressors, we project salt intrusion within the Mekong mega-Delta, in the next three decades. We assess the relative effects of various drivers and show that anthropogenic forces such as groundwater extraction-induced subsidence and riverbed level incisions due to sediment starvation can increase the salinity-affected areas by 10–27% compared to the present-day situation, while future sea level rise adds another 6–19% increase. These projections provide crucial input for adaptation policy development in the Mekong Delta and the methodology inspires future systemic studies of environmental changes in other deltas.

The Mekong Delta constitutes a complicated multi-channel estuarine system, exchanging water with a delta-wide irrigation system. A 1D–2DH coupled numerical domain is calibrated and validated for water level and discharge during the dry season. This approach benefits from the simplicity of a 1D network within the estuarine and irrigation systems, while maintaining the interaction with the spatial tidal dynamics of the 2DH coastal domain. First, the role of the irrigation system on tidal dynamics is quantified; then, tidal propagation, freshwater budget, and the effect of offshore subtidal water level on discharge division are investigated. The results show that the complex irrigation system, in a friction-like manner, reduces the tidal amplitude up to 25%. The channels aggregate to 1% of the total water volume in the delta, while accommodating up to 10% of the tidal prism. Tidal amplitude reduces upstream, while subtidal water level is highly sensitive to upstream discharge, spring–neap cycles, and wind-generated offshore surge. Although cumulative discharge division within the estuarine network is consistent, temporal discharge division can be significantly sensitive to offshore wind-surge. During the dry season, it can reverse the expected subtidal discharge division within the time-scale of a few days and potentially influence salt intrusion.

Abstract. In the list of challenges facing the world largest deltas, increased salt intrusion and its role in jeopardizing freshwater supply is often ranked very high. Yet, detailed process-based studies of salt intrusion at the whole delta scale are limited and the trends are regularly associated to global sea level rise. Here, using field measurements and a sophisticated 3D model that integrates the riverine, rural, estuarine, and coastal dynamics within one numerical domain, we study salt intrusion at the scale of the Mekong Delta in extensive detail. While many studies down-scale the salt intrusion problem to a topic within an estuary, we show that the continental shelf is an intrinsic component of the delta, and its physical processes, such as monsoon-driven ocean surge, directly influence salinity dynamics within the delta. Typical values of 20–40 cm surge over the continental shelf contribute to up to 10 km of further salt intrusion. The delta's estuarine system is also more sensitive than many other systems to upstream discharge variations. Furthermore, spring-neap variability plays a key role in salt intrusion in the delta. The estuarine variability from a stratified to a mixed system between neap and spring tides develops 3D processes such as estuarine circulation and tidal straining that become the main upstream salt transport mechanisms. The 3D nature of salinity dynamics, and the role of upstream and downstream processes, suggests that compromising on dimension or extent of the numerical domain, can limit the accuracy of predictions of salt intrusion in the delta. The study also showcases that riverbed incision in response to anthropogenic sediment starvation in the last two decades, has increased stratification, and activated or magnified 3D salt transport sub-processes that amplify upstream salt transport. With all the external forces on the delta namely climate change and altered hydrological regime by the upstream dams, due to deeper estuarine channels (driven by sand mining and upstream impoundments), the delta itself is far more vulnerable to even mild natural events. This exemplifies the fundamental importance of preserving the sediment budget and riverbed levels in protecting the world's deltas against salt intrusion.

Abstract. On the list of challenges facing the world largest deltas, increased saline water intrusion (SWI) in the surface water system and its role in jeopardizing freshwater supply are often ranked very high. Yet, detailed process-based studies of SWI at the whole delta scale are limited, and the trends are regularly associated with global sea level rise. Here, using field measurements and a sophisticated 3D model that integrates the riverine, rural, estuarine, and coastal dynamics within one numerical domain, we study SWI at the scale of the Mekong Delta in extensive detail. While many studies downscale the SWI problem to a topic within an estuary, we show that the physical processes on the continental shelf, such as monsoon-driven ocean surge, directly influence salinity dynamics within the delta. Typical values of 20–40 cm surge over the continental shelf contribute to up to 10 km of further SWI. The delta's estuarine system is also more sensitive than many other systems to variations of river discharge. Furthermore, spring–neap variability plays a key role in SWI in the delta. The estuarine variability from a stratified to a mixed system between neap and spring tides develops 3D processes such as estuarine circulation and tidal straining that become the main upstream salt transport mechanisms. The 3D nature of salinity dynamics, and the role of upstream and downstream processes, suggests that compromising on dimension or extent of the numerical domain can limit the accuracy of predictions of SWI in the delta. The study also showcases the fact that riverbed incision in response to anthropogenic sediment starvation in the last 2 decades has increased stratification and activated or magnified 3D salt transport subprocesses that amplify upstream salt transport. With all the external forces on the delta, namely climate change and an altered hydrological regime by the upstream dams, due to deeper estuarine channels (driven by sand mining and upstream impoundments) compared to its near past, the delta itself has become far more vulnerable to even mild natural events. This exemplifies the fundamental importance of preserving the sediment budget and riverbed levels in protecting the world's deltas against SWI.

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