Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) can be fatal; therefore, several scoring systems have been developed to predict its prognosis. We aimed to compare the mortality predictions and evaluate the usefulness of various scoring systems. MethodsThe medical records of 3,794 patients who visited the emergency department with hematochezia between January 2016 and December 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. We calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for 30-day mortality and prolonged hospital stay (≥ 10 days), based on the age, blood tests, and comorbidities (ABC); AIMS65; Glasgow Blatchford; Oakland; Rockall (pre-endoscopy); and SHA 2 PE scores. We compared the predictive accuracy of each score. ResultsData for 963 patients (median age, 69 years; males, 54.5%; median hospital stay, 6 days) with colonoscopy-con rmed LGIB were analyzed. The 30-day mortality rate was 3.5%. The most common causes of LGIB were ischemic colitis and diverticulum hemorrhage in 19.3% and 19.2% of the cases, respectively. The AIMS65 (AUROC, 0.845) and ABC (AUROC, 0.835) scores were superior in predicting 30day mortality (both p < 0.001). The SHA 2 PE score was the most accurate predictor of prolonged hospital stay (AUROC, 0.728; p < 0.001). Through multivariate regression analysis, 30-day mortality was correlated with albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL, international normalized ratio > 1.5, blood urea nitrogen level ≥ 30 mg/dL, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 100 mmHg. Prolonged hospital stay was correlated with liver cirrhosis, hemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dL, albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL, and SBP < 100 mmHg. ConclusionThe recently developed scoring systems accurately predict LGIB prognosis, and their usefulness in clinical decision-making was con rmed.

Background: Various scoring systems have been developed to predict endoscopic intervention, mortality, and rebleeding in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB); however, they have not been sufficiently validated in Korea. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of several scoring systems in Korea by validating and comparing the Japanese score and other scores in Korean people with NVUGIB. Methods: The medical records of 1368 patients with NVUGIB were reviewed to collect statistical, clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic data. The Japanese score, ABC score, Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score (GBS), and MAP score were calculated retrospectively at a single research institution. These scores for predicting the need for endoscopic intervention, mortality, and rebleeding were calculated and evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Of 1368 patients, 88.5% required endoscopic intervention, 4.1% died within 30 days, and 12.6% experienced rebleeding. The Japanese score was effective for predicting endoscopic intervention, and the ABC score was best for predicting 30-day mortality. Sex, age, hematemesis, blood urea nitrogen, and American Society of Anesthesiologists score were found to be predictors of the need for endoscopic intervention. Conclusion: The Japanese score did not prove useful in Koreans with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Additional research is needed due to the limitations of a retrospective study conducted in a single research institute.

Background: Risk stratification is recommended for patients with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. The ABC score is a new scoring tool with high accuracy for upper and lower GI bleeding. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the ABC score in predicting the outcomes of patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. Methods: This single-center retrospective study included 809 patients, each with symptoms of upper GI bleeding, and who were diagnosed with ulcerative lesions between October 2011 and March 2021. The association between the ABC score’s variables and the patients’ outcome was analyzed. The score’s performance in predicting the patients’ outcome was validated using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with that of other scores. Results: The study analyzed 772 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. The primary outcome measure was all-cause 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome measures included rebleeding within 30 days and the need for radiologic/surgical intervention. Age (P = .013), serum albumin levels (P < .001), serum creatinine levels (P = .004), mental status (P < .001), and American Society of Anesthesiologists score (P < .001) were associated with the primary outcome. The ABC score predicted the 30-day mortality (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.927; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.899–0.956) better than other scores. However, it was less accurate in predicting rebleeding (AUROC 0.630; 95% CI 0.563–0.697) and need for radiologic/surgical intervention (AUROC 0.641; 95% CI 0.550–0.732). Conclusions: The ABC score accurately predicts the 30-day mortality in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. However, it may not be suitable for predicting rebleeding or the need for radiologic/surgical interventions.

Purpose Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) can be fatal; therefore, several scoring systems have been developed to predict its prognosis. We aimed to compare the mortality predictions and evaluate the usefulness of various scoring systems. Methods The medical records of 3,794 patients who visited the emergency department with hematochezia between January 2016 and December 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. We calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for 30-day mortality and prolonged hospital stay (≥ 10 days), based on the age, blood tests, and comorbidities (ABC); AIMS65; Glasgow Blatchford; Oakland; Rockall (pre-endoscopy); and SHA2PE scores. We compared the predictive accuracy of each score. Results Data for 963 patients (median age, 69 years; males, 54.5%; median hospital stay, 6 days) with colonoscopy-confirmed LGIB were analyzed. The 30-day mortality rate was 3.5%. The most common causes of LGIB were ischemic colitis and diverticulum hemorrhage in 19.3% and 19.2% of the cases, respectively. The AIMS65 (AUROC, 0.845) and ABC (AUROC, 0.835) scores were superior in predicting 30-day mortality (both p < 0.001). The SHA2PE score was the most accurate predictor of prolonged hospital stay (AUROC, 0.728; p < 0.001). Through multivariate regression analysis, 30-day mortality was correlated with albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL, international normalized ratio > 1.5, blood urea nitrogen level ≥ 30 mg/dL, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 100 mmHg. Prolonged hospital stay was correlated with liver cirrhosis, hemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dL, albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL, and SBP < 100 mmHg. Conclusion The recently developed scoring systems accurately predict LGIB prognosis, and their usefulness in clinical decision-making was confirmed.

No abstract