The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model has been widely used to define rainfall thresholds for triggering shallow landslides. In this study, the rainfall intensity(I)-duration(D) thresholds for multiple slope units of an area in Pu’an County, Guizhou Province, China were defined based on TRIGRS. Given that TRIGRS is used to simulate the slope stability under the conditions of a given increasing sequence of I-D data, if the slope reaches instability at I = a, D = b, it will also become unstable in the case of I = a, D > b or I > a, D = b. To explore the effect of these I-D data with the same I or D values on the definition of I-D thresholds and the best method to exclude these data, two screening methods were used to exclude the I-D data that caused instability in the TRIGTS simulation. First, I-D data with the same I values when D values are greater than a certain limit value were excluded. Second, several D values were selected to exclude I-D data with the same I values for a slope unit. Then, an I value was selected to exclude I-D data with the same D values. After screening, two different I-D thresholds were defined. The comparison with the thresholds defined without screening shows that the I-D data with the same I or D values will reduce the accuracy of thresholds. Moreover, the second screening method can entirely exclude these data.
The Lueyang and Xunyang counties in the Shaanxi province (China) are highly susceptible to rainfall-induced landslides. Rainfall thresholds are the most used tool to predict the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over large areas. However, the definition of robust thresholds may be difficult for unbalanced datasets, for which the number of non-landslide observations is much higher than the number of landslide observations. This study aims at defining adequate rainfall thresholds for the two study areas using landslide datasets that are strongly unbalanced in terms of occurrences vs. non-occurrences. Two types of rainfall thresholds are determined using a frequentist method at several non-exceedance and exceedance probabilities, separately considering rainfall events responsible for landslides (positive thresholds) and rainfall events not responsible for landslides (negative thresholds). The comparison between the two sets of thresholds shows that the method based on non-triggering events allows defining rainfall thresholds characterized by lower uncertainties and a better performance than the ones defined considering the triggering events, in both the study areas. In particular, the best-performing thresholds are the negative threshold defined at 15% exceedance probability for the Lueyang county and the negative threshold defined at 20% exceedance probability for the Xunyang county.
Earthquake disasters are frequent, and the seismic intensity is large in Northeast China. Earthquake activity research is an important aspect of earthquake disaster management. We chose some unconventional means to study fault activity, to find updated activity evidence. The Ms 5.3 earthquake occurred near the Fuyu North Fault (FNF) of China on May 27, 2018. Using the Sentinel-1B descending orbit data from 2016 to 2019, the line-of-sight (LOS) surface deformation in the study area was calculated by using the small baseline subset (SBAS) method. After transforming to the horizontal EW deformation, the variance component estimation method was used for fusion reconstruction with the EW data of the surrounding GNSS stations. The polynomial least square method is used to fit the fault slip rate of three EW data on the surface trace of the FNF. The fitting results of the three regions show that the horizontal eastward distribution rate of the upper plate is significantly greater than that of the lower plate, which is left-lateral clockwise torsion. The vertical structural deformation caused by the growth strata of the upper and lower plates of the upper SYT2 seismic profile of the FNF is quantitatively calculated, and the thrust rate of the upper plate is 0.2 mm/y relative to that of the lower plate. Based on the Li Siguang chessboard structure model, we found that the compression stress in the north-south direction is gradually weakened, and the compression stress in the east-west direction is gradually enhanced. Through the Coulomb stress analysis, the three events of CMT only induced the historical focal location of the surrounding part. The events of 2017 did not induce the events of 2018, but the events of 2019 were related to the induced effects of 2017 and 2018.
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