This paper analyzes trade creation and trade diversion effects in the Economic Community of Central AfricanStates (ECCAS) between 2007 and 2016 using the Gravity Model. The results show that variables like GDP, population, bilateral distance, political stability and corruption are crucial for the determination of bilateral trade flow. More importantly, the study finds that there is neither trade creation nor trade diversion in the ECCAS region. Thus, the FTA in ECCAS did not lead either to reinforce intra-trade or to emphasize trade with non-member countries. Yet, the Economic Community of Central African States (CEMAC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the East African Community (EAC) have been trade creating during the aforementioned period. Therefore, the paper recommends policy makers to promote more regional integration within ECCAS notably through the construction of intra-zone communication means and the effective establishment of the free movement of people and goods within the region.
In this study, 1990-2019 period for Turkey, 'twin deficits' and 'triplet deficit' validity was analysed with Bayer-Hanck (2012) cointegration test and Hacker-Hatemi-J causality test. According to the findings of the causality analysis of Hacker and Hatemi-J ( 2006), it is concluded that there is a one-way causality relationship from budget deficit to current account deficit, from budget deficit to interest rate, from interest rate to current account deficit, and from interest rate to net savings rate. In the period analysed for Turkey, 'Twin Deficits that the hypothesis is valid but that the triplet deficit hypothesis is not valid.
Bu makale, en az iki hakem tarafından incelenmiş ve intihal içermediği teyit edilmiştir. / This article has been reviewed by at least two referees and scanned via a plagiarism software.
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