Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are essential for community development, but their enormous demand has posed a serious threat to trees growing in their natural habitat. Copal resin is one of these products, which has a great deal of religious and ceremonial significance in Mexico and around the world. Resin extraction from a tree depends on its morphological and physiological characteristics, as well as its physical and sanitary condition. In this study, a methodology was proposed for determining the yield and health status of Copal trees, and a random forest (RF) model was developed to explain their resin production based on their morphological and condition characteristics. The experiment was conducted in the Agua Escondida watershed in Puebla, Mexico. With the training data, the average accuracy of the model was 99%, with a Kappa index of 98%, which is considered an excellent level of agreement beyond chance, and with the validation data, the average accuracy was 71% and 47%, which is considered a good level of agreement beyond chance. Tree condition was the most important factor affecting resin production in Copal trees, followed by stem diameter (33 and 38 cm), height (2 and 2.5 m), and diameter of secondary branches (from 8 to 15, 22 and 32 cm).

Composition and floristic diversity of ecosystems subject to overexploitation, such as tropical deciduous forests where copal resin (Bursera bipinnata, Bursera copallifera) is extracted, are of great importance for understanding the ecological functioning of these ecosystems. This study analyzed the species composition and diversity in a natural population subject to copal extraction in San Juan Raboso Izúcar de Matamoros, Puebla, Mexico. A total of 54 sampling units were established, and the number of individuals and crown diameter for each tree species were recorded. For shrubs, succulents, acaulescent rosetophytes and climbers, the number of individuals and the area of cover were quantified. Based on the parameters of abundance, frequency, and relative dominance, the importance value index (IVI) was calculated. Diversity was evaluated using the Shannon index $$(H {^{\prime}})$$ ( H ′ ) . In total, 29 species were identified, distributed across 11 botanical families and 21 genera. The Fabaceae family was the richest, followed by the Burseraceae family, which includes the species that extract copal, but Opuntia streptacantha was the species with the most ecological weight. In this study, the Shannon index $$({H}^{^{\prime}})$$ ( H ′ ) averaged 1.45, which indicates that the community was mildly diverse.