In this study, we assimilate 2-m air temperature data with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) using the WRF-NMM model forecast as a first guess. Single time analysis experiments are conducted to test the impact of 2-m air temperature data on the analysis system and the results are compared with the control run without using 2-m air temperature data. The effort is focused on understanding the characteristics of observation innovations of the 2-m air temperature data. Modifications to background errors and a simple test of nonlinear quality control are also considered. The incorporation of a comprehensive near-surface observation operator based on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory is described and tested for possible operational use with the NCEP regional GSI system. The results from this new forward operator are compared with those from the existing simple forward operator. According to the results, mesonet 2-m temperature data were found to have a considerable amount of outliers compared with other 2-m temperature data. The nighttime western and central US domains indicated a model warm bias. Stations with large innovations are distributed uniformly in the nighttime western and central domains, while they are mainly located in the large cities in the daytime eastern domain. The statistical analysis of observation innovations showed that introduction of the new forward model can reduce root-mean-square errors in observation increment statistics. The results of a short assimilation experiment indicate that the new forward operator can be employed as a short-term strategy for near-surface data assimilation in the NCEP.
To investigate the statistical sensitivity distributions of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts over the Korean Peninsula, total energy (TE) singular vectors (SVs) were calculated and evaluated over a 10-year period. TESVs were calculated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its tangent linear and adjoint models with a Lanczos algorithm over a 48-h period. Chosen cases were 21 TCs that affected the Korean Peninsula among 230 TCs that were generated in the western North Pacific from 2001 to 2010. Sensitive regions indicated by TESVs were mainly located near mid-latitude troughs and TC centers but varied depending on TC track and environmental conditions such as subtropical high and mid-latitude trough. The cases were classified into three groups by clustering TC tracks based on the finite mixture model. The two groups that passed through the western and southern sea of the Korean Peninsula had maximally sensitive regions in the mid-latitude trough and largely sensitive regions around the TC center, while the other group that passed straight through the eastern sea of the Korean Peninsula had maximally sensitive regions near the northeastern region of the TC center. Vertically, the former two clustered groups had the westerly tilted TESVs and potential vorticity structures under the mid-latitude troughs at the initial time, indicating the TCs were in a baroclinic environment. Conversely, the straight-moving TCs were not in a baroclinic environment. Based on the results in the present study, the TCs moving toward a fixed verification region over the Korean Peninsula have different sensitivity regions and structures according to their moving tracks and characteristic environmental conditions, which may provide guidance for targeted observations of TCs affecting the Korean Peninsula.
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