Only 8.2% of the older adults presenting in the acute phase of CHIKV have typical forms, suggesting that the most-frequent clinical presentation of CHIKV in older adults differs from that in younger individuals.
ObjectiveThe primary objective was to identify predictive factors of inhospital death in a population of patients aged 65 years or older hospitalised with Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection. The secondary aim was to develop and validate a predictive score for inhospital death based on the predictors identified.DesignLongitudinal retrospective study from January to December 2014.SettingUniversity Hospital of Martinique.ParticipantsPatients aged ≥65 years, admitted to any clinical ward and who underwent reverse transcription PCR testing for CHIKV infection.OutcomeIndependent predictors of inhospital death were identified using multivariable Cox regression modelling. A predictive score was created using the adjusted HRs of factors associated with inhospital death. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the best cut-off value. Bootstrap analysis was used to evaluate internal validity.ResultsOverall, 385 patients aged ≥65 years were included (average age: 80±8 years). Half were women, and 35 (9.1%) died during the hospital stay. Seven variables were found to be independently associated with inhospital death (concurrent cardiovascular disorders: HR 11.8, 95% CI 4.5 to 30.8; concurrent respiratory infection: HR 9.6, 95% CI 3.4 to 27.2; concurrent sensorimotor deficit: HR 7.6, 95% CI 2.0 to 28.5; absence of musculoskeletal pain: HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.3; history of alcoholism: HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 5.9; concurrent digestive symptoms: HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.9; presence of confusion or delirium: HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.2). The score ranged from 0 to 25, with an average of 6±6. The area under the curve was excellent (0.90; 95% CI 0.86 to 0.94). The best cut-off value was a score ≥8 points, with a sensitivity of 91% (82%–100%) and specificity of 75% (70%–80%).ConclusionsSigns observed by the clinician during the initial examination could predict inhospital death. The score will be helpful for early management of elderly subjects presenting within 7 days of symptom onset in the context of CHIKV outbreaks.
Misdiagnosis of CVI during an epidemic is statistically more frequent in older than younger adults because clinical presentation is often atypical in older adults. Specific diagnostic tools for older adults and better awareness of ED physicians of different presentations in different age groups could help to reduce the rate of misdiagnosis of CVI in the ED.
BackgroundThis study aimed to derive and validate a score for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection screening in old people admitted to acute care units.MethodsThis study was performed in the Martinique University Hospitals from retrospective cases. Patients were aged 65+, admitted to acute care units for suspected CHIKV infection in 2014, with biological testing using Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). RT-PCR was used as the gold standard. A screening score was created using adjusted odds ratios of factors associated with positive RT-PCR derived from a multivariable logistic regression model. A ROC curve was used to determine the best cut-off of the score. Bootstrap analysis was used to evaluate its internal validity.ResultsIn all, 687 patients were included, 68% with confirmed CHIKV infection, and 32% with laboratory-unconfirmed CHIKV infection. Mean age was 80±8 years, 51% were women. Four variables were found to be independently associated with positive RT-PCR (fever: 3 points; arthralgia of the ankle: 2 points; lymphopenia: 6 points; absence of neutrophil leucocytosis: 10 points). The best cut-off was score ≥12; sensitivity was 87% (83%-90%) and specificity was 70% (63%-76%).ConclusionThis score shows good diagnostic performance and good internal validation and could be helpful to screen aged people for CHIKV infection.
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