BUĞDAY, E.; ERKAN BUĞDAY, S. Modeling and simulating land use/cover change using artificial neural network from remotely sensing data. CERNE, v. 25, n. 2, p.246-254, 2019. HIGHLIGHTSApplicability of decision support systems in landscape planning.To reveal the spatio-temporal land use and land cover changes.Estimation of land use and cover change by human population movements. ABSTRACTIncreasing population, mobility and requirements of human beings have significant effects on the dynamics of land use and land cover. Today, these impacts need to be understood and analyzed for the applicability of decision support systems, which are an important tool in the management of natural resources, urban and rural areas. The aim of this study is to detect the temporal and spatial changes of land cover and human population, in northwest Turkey. For this purpose, using satellite images of 1997-2007 and 2017 years' land cover was estimated for 2027 by ANN (Artificial Neural Network) approach. Kappa values are 93%, 87% and 95% for 1997, 2007 and 2017 respectively. As a result, learning success was 80.6%, and correctness validation value was 90.1% for 2027 simulation. In parallel, the spatial analysis of the population was conducted for 2000-2007-2017. Using the exponential rate of change; the population was predicted to increase by concentrating on the urban area and the rural areas surrounding the urban (with a rate of 2.019%) for 2027. According to the results; rural population, urban population, forest, and built-up areas is estimated to increase by 4.14%, 5.58%, 2.72%, and 0.77% respectively from 2017 to 2027, while the agricultural and water area is estimated to decrease by 3.47% and 0.02% respectively. Consequently, the observation of population movements and the use of the ANN approach in simulations could be suggested for the success of planning in forest and land management.v.25 n.
ÖzetDünya çapında doğa koruma alanında yaşanan gelişmeler paralelinde Türkiye'de bu kapsamda birçok çalışma yapılmıştır. Sahip olduğu konum itibariyle de birçok alan çeşitli statülerle koruma altına alınmıştır.Zengin biyoçeşitliliği bakımından Türkiye'nin en nemli bölgelerinden biri olan Kastamonu ilinde de ekolojik, kültürel ve sosyal yönleri ile birçok alan çeşitli statülerde koruma altındadır.Bu çalışmada, Kastamonu ilinde bulunan ve sahip oldukları özellikle orman ve diğer doğal kaynaklar nedeniyle çeşitli statüler kazandırılan alanların belirlenmesi ve mevcut durumunun ortaya konması, bu alanların özellikleri ile statüleri hakkında bilgi verilmesi ve bu alanlar hakkındaki genel bilgilerin bir çalışma altında toplanması amaçlanmıştır. Bu alanlar çalışmada, 2873 sayılı Milli Parklar Kanunu'na göre korunan alanlar, bu kanun kapsamı dışında kalan ve özel nitelikleri nedeni ile korunan alanlar ve rekreasyon amaçlı yönetilen alanlar olarak üç grupta incelenmiştir.Kastamonu ilinde 2 milli park, 3 tabiat parkı, 4 tabiat anıtı olmak üzere 2873 sayılı Milli Parklar Kanunu'na göre korunan alanlar 38891,8 ha, 4 yaban hayatı geliştirme sahası, 2 muhafaza ormanı, 22 gen koruma ormanı, 7 tohum meşceresi, 2 tohum bahçesi üzere diğer kanunlar çerçevesinde özel nitelikleri nedeni ile korunan alanlar 47636,7 ha ve 19 mesire alanı rekreasyon amaçlı yönetilen alanlar 147,1 ha alanı kaplamaktadır. Toplamda da Kastamonu ilinin %0,66'sı çeşitli statülerde korunmaktadır.
In the Kozak Basin, which is the most important pine nut production and trade center in Turkey, there has been a significant decrease in production recently. In this study, the perspectives of the farmers in this area were investigated, specifically about reasons for the decrease in yields. For this purpose, a face-to-face survey was conducted with 378 pine nut farmers from the Kozak Basin. It was determined that the average age of the farmers is high, their educational achievement level is low, they generally also work in alternative sectors and almost all of them grow pine nuts in their own pine groves. The farmers’ perception of cooperatives was found to be negative. In general, the local people continue to produce pine nuts in their own pine groves, but nearly half of the participants also worked in other sectors to maintain their standard of living. Farmers attribute the low yield in the Kozak Basin to both abiotic and biotic factors. Mining activities, which are increasing, are seen as a threat to the future of production in the area. Also, there is a growing perception of biotic harm, especially from Western Conifer Seed Bug, Leptoglossus occidentalis. Climate change and air pollution are other prominent factors.
Migration is one of the most important issues in Turkey today. Notably, the state forest enterprises are affected by the social, economic, and ecological dimensions of migration; these enterprises find it increasingly difficult to find labor to operate effectively in the forestry activities with each passing day. This study examined population movement over the 1965–2013 period in Kastamonu forest villages to assess how topographical factors affected this movement. Kastamonu is the province in which most of Turkey’s forest products are produced, and 99% of the province’s rural population consists of forest villagers. This study investigated population fluctuations of 883 villages within and 137 villages adjacent to these forests and found a negative linear tendency in these populations. The purpose of this study is to identify a relationship between the decreasing population and the terrain of the forest villages (including aspect, slope, elevation, and distance to the provincial and district centers) using spatial, simple, and partial correlation analyses. The statistical analysis revealed a negative and significant relationship between population decrease and terrain. As a result, without taking the other reasons for migration into account, the tendency of the rural migration was determined to increase as the slope, elevation, and distance to the province centers increased. The basis for a predictive model of forest villagers’ migration might thus be created by this study. Also, the driving force of migration might be revealed through quantitative modeling, and this might help create more rational development plans and programs.
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