Climatic conditions changing over time and space shape the evolution of organisms at multiple levels, including temperate lizards in the family Lacertidae. Here we reconstruct a dated phylogenetic tree of 262 lacertid species based on a supermatrix relying on novel phylogenomic datasets and fossil calibrations. Diversification of lacertids was accompanied by an increasing disparity among occupied bioclimatic niches, especially in the last 10 Ma, during a period of progressive global cooling. Temperate species also underwent a genome-wide slowdown in molecular substitution rates compared to tropical and desert-adapted lacertids. Evaporative water loss and preferred temperature are correlated with bioclimatic parameters, indicating physiological adaptations to climate. Tropical, but also some populations of cool-adapted species experience maximum temperatures close to their preferred temperatures. We hypothesize these species-specific physiological preferences may constitute a handicap to prevail under rapid global warming, and contribute to explaining local lizard extinctions in cool and humid climates.

Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists. In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures, which restrict hours of activity of lizards, h , for present-day climate (1975) and future climate scenarios (2070). We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards (or taxa in species complexes) drawn from literature and museum records. Our analysis is phylogenetically informed, because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures. Computed h limits predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions. Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario, we predict extirpation of 64% of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species, and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded. In tandem with global strategies of lower CO emissions, we propose regional strategies for establishing new National Parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence. We propose that evolved acclimatization - maternal plasticity - may ameliorate risk, but is poorly studied. Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by ±1°C. We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming - a self-rescue. We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Abstract. Knowledge of the thermal ecology of a species can improve model predictions for temperatureinduced population collapse, which in light of climate change is increasingly important for species with limited distributions. Here, we use a multi-faceted approach to quantify and integrate the thermal ecology, properties of the thermal habitat, and past and present distribution of the diurnal, xeric-adapted, and active-foraging Namibian lizard Pedioplanis husabensis (Sauria: Lacertidae) to model its local extinction risk under future climate change scenarios. We asked whether climatic conditions in various regions of its range are already so extreme that local extirpations of P. husabensis have already occurred, or whether this micro-endemic species is adapted to these extreme conditions and uses behavior to mitigate the environmental challenges. To address this, we collected thermoregulation and climate data at a micro-scale level and combined it with micro-and macroclimate data across the species' range to model extinction risk. We found that P. husabensis inhabits a thermally harsh environment, but also has high thermal preference. In cooler parts of its range, individuals are capable of leaving thermally favorable conditions-based on the species' thermal preference-unused during the day, probably to maintain low metabolic rates. Furthermore, during the summer, we observed that individuals regulate at body temperatures below the species' high thermal preference to avoid body temperatures approaching the critical thermal maximum. We find that populations of this species are currently persisting even at the hottest localities within the species' geographic distribution. We found no evidence of range shifts since the 1960s despite a documented increase in air temperatures. Nevertheless, P. husabensis only has a small safety margin between the upper limit of its thermal preference and the critical thermal maximum and might undergo range reductions in the near future under even the most moderate climate change scenarios.

Lizard tail autotomy is an antipredator strategy consisting of sturdy attachment at regular times but quick detachment during need. We propose a biomimetic fracture model of lizard tail autotomy using multiscale hierarchical structures. The structures consist of uniformly distributed micropillars with nanoporous tops, which recapitulate the high-density mushroom-shaped microstructures found on the lizard tail’s muscle fracture plane. The biomimetic experiments showed adhesion enhancement when combining nanoporous interfacial surfaces with flexible micropillars in tensile and peel modes. The fracture modeling identified micro- and nanostructure-based toughening mechanisms as the critical factor. Under wet conditions, capillarity-assisted energy dissipation pertaining to liquid-filled microgaps and nanopores further increased the adhesion performance. This research presents insights on lizard tail autotomy and provides new biomimetic ideas to solve adhesion problems.