Summary Many power plants in Germany and Europe are approaching the end of their technical lifetime. Moreover, the increasing wind and solar power generation reduces the operation times of thermal power plants, making future investments in new generation capacity uncertain under current market conditions. Consequently, the future development of security of power supply is unclear. In this paper, we assess the impact of stochastic fluctuations in power plant availability, renewable generation, and grid load on the future security of supply in Germany. We model variations in power plant availability by application of a combined Mean‐reversion Jump‐diffusion approach. On the basis of that and using Monte‐Carlo methods, we simulate 300 different time series of availability. These profiles are fed into the fundamental power system model REMix, applied to evaluate the appearance of supply shortfalls in hourly resolution. We assess 6 scenarios for the year 2025, differing in renewable generation and demand profiles, as well as grid infrastructure. Geographical focus of the analysis is Germany, but the electricity exchange with its European neighbours is modelled as well. Our results show that the choice of the power plant availability profile can change the loss of load expectation and loss of load hours by up to 50%. However, the influence of load and renewable generation profiles is found to be significantly higher. Assuming that no new conventional power plants are built and existing plants are decommissioned at the end of their empirical lifetime, we identify supply gaps of up to 2.7 GW in Germany.
Heading towards climate neutrality, the electrification of the transport sector has significant impact on the electric grid infrastructure. Among other vehicles, the increasing number of new technologies, mobility offers, and services has an impact on the grid infrastructure. The purpose of this case study therefore is to examine and highlight the small electric vehicle (SEV) impact on the electric load and grid. A data-based analysis model with high charging demand in an energy network is developed that includes renewable energy production and a charging process of a whole SEV fleet during the daily electricity demand peak for the city of Stuttgart (Germany). Key figures are gathered and analysed from official statistics and open data sources. The resulting load increase due to the SEV development is determined and the impact on the electric grid in comparison to battery electric vehicles (BEV) is assessed for two district types. The case study shows that if SEVs replace BEVs, the effects on the grid peak load are considered significant. However, the implementation of a load management system may have an even higher influence on peak load reduction. Finally, recommendations for the future national and international development of SEV fleets are summarized.
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