The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude criteria that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model that accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historical seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are calculated using western US and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for 8 site classes. For most sites the new analysis results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are the highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai’i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.

This article summarizes the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Subduction (NGA-Sub) project, a major research program to develop a database and ground motion models (GMMs) for subduction regions. A comprehensive database of subduction earthquakes recorded worldwide was developed. The database includes a total of 214,020 individual records from 1,880 subduction events, which is by far the largest database of all the NGA programs. As part of the NGA-Sub program, four GMMs were developed. Three of them are global subduction GMMs with adjustment factors for up to seven worldwide regions: Alaska, Cascadia, Central America and Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, South America, and Taiwan. The fourth GMM is a new Japan-specific model. The GMMs provide median predictions, and the associated aleatory variability, of RotD50 horizontal components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at oscillator periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. Three GMMs also quantified “within-model” epistemic uncertainty of the median prediction, which is important in regions with sparse ground motion data, such as Cascadia. In addition, a damping scaling model was developed to scale the predicted 5%-damped PSA of horizontal components to other damping ratios ranging from 0.5% to 30%. The NGA-Sub flatfile, which was used for the development of the NGA-Sub GMMs, and the NGA-Sub GMMs coded on various software platforms, have been posted for public use.

We describe source and path attributes of the Next Generation of Ground-Motion Attenuation for Subduction zones (NGA-Sub) project relational database. The database contains 991 earthquakes between 1937 and 2016 that meet quality assurance standards and have assigned event types (mostly interface or intraslab). Data curation emphasized large magnitudes: 73% of events have M > 5 and 13 events have M > 8. Event attributes in the database can be broadly divided into those related to the moment tensor, those related to rupture surface geometry (referred to as finite-fault parameters), and categorizations by type (e.g. interface, intraslab) and sequence classification (mainshock, aftershock). Earthquake information and moment tensor parameters compiled from earthquake catalogs include event date and origin time, hypocenter location, seismic moment, and the strike, dip, and rake angles of nodal planes. Finite-fault parameters include along-strike length, down-dip width, and depth to top-of-rupture for one or more rectangles used to parameterize rupture surface geometry. These are modified from models in literature where available, and otherwise are simulated using procedures customized for subduction earthquakes. Rupture distance and other metrics are computed using finite-fault representations of sources, and (as applicable) are partitioned into forearc and backarc components. Forearc and backarc regions are defined based on volcano locations, and are assigned to events and sites.

The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence produced a 4 July M 6.5 foreshock and a 5 July M 7.1 mainshock, along with 23 events with magnitudes greater than 4.5 in the 24 hr period following the mainshock. The epicenters of the two principal events were located in the Indian Wells Valley, northwest of Searles Valley near the towns of Ridgecrest, Trona, and Argus. We describe observed liquefaction manifestations including sand boils, fissures, and lateral spreading features, as well as proximate non-ground failure zones that resulted from the sequence. Expanding upon results initially presented in a report of the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association, we synthesize results of field mapping, aerial imagery, and inferences of ground deformations from Synthetic Aperture Radar-based damage proxy maps (DPMs). We document incidents of liquefaction, settlement, and lateral spreading in the Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake US military base and compare locations of these observations to pre- and postevent mapping of liquefaction hazards. We describe liquefaction and ground-failure features in Trona and Argus, which produced lateral deformations and impacts on several single-story masonry and wood frame buildings. Detailed maps showing zones with and without ground failure are provided for these towns, along with mapped ground deformations along transects. Finally, we describe incidents of massive liquefaction with related ground failures and proximate areas of similar geologic origin without ground failure in the Searles Lakebed. Observations in this region are consistent with surface change predicted by the DPM. In the same region, geospatial liquefaction hazard maps are effective at identifying broad percentages of land with liquefaction-related damage. We anticipate that data presented in this article will be useful for future liquefaction susceptibility, triggering, and consequence studies being undertaken as part of the Next Generation Liquefaction project.