Cryptocurrencies are among the largest unregulated markets in the world. We find that approximately one-quarter of bitcoin users are involved in illegal activity. We estimate that around $76 billion of illegal activity per year involves bitcoin (46% of bitcoin transactions), which is close to the scale of the US and European markets for illegal drugs. The illegal share of bitcoin activity declines with mainstream interest in bitcoin and with the emergence of more opaque cryptocurrencies. The techniques developed in this paper have applications in cryptocurrency surveillance. Our findings suggest that cryptocurrencies are transforming the black markets by enabling "black e-commerce". (JEL G18, O31, O32, O33) We thank two anonymous referees, the RFS FinTech sponsoring editors (
Cryptocurrencies are among the largest unregulated markets in the world. We find that approximately one-quarter of bitcoin users are involved in illegal activity. We estimate that around $76 billion of illegal activity per year involves bitcoin (46% of bitcoin transactions), which is close to the scale of the US and European markets for illegal drugs. The illegal share of bitcoin activity declines with mainstream interest in bitcoin and with the emergence of more opaque cryptocurrencies. The techniques developed in this paper have applications in cryptocurrency surveillance. Our findings suggest that cryptocurrencies are transforming the black markets by enabling "black e-commerce". (JEL G18, O31, O32, O33) We thank two anonymous referees, the RFS FinTech sponsoring editors (
We exploit a unique natural experiment-recent restrictions of dark trading in Canada-and proprietary trade-level data to analyze the effects of dark trading. Disaggregating two types of dark trading, we find that dark limit order markets are beneficial to market quality, reducing quoted, effective and realized spreads and increasing informational efficiency. In contrast, dark midpoint crossing systems do not benefit market quality. Our results support recent theory that dark limit order markets encourage aggressive competition in liquidity provision. We discuss implications for the regulation of dark trading and tick sizes.
Using new empirical measures of information leadership, we find that the role of options in price discovery is up to five times larger than previously thought. Approximately one-quarter of new information is reflected in options prices before being transmitted to stock prices, with options playing a more important role in price discovery around information events. Using unique data on traders prosecuted for insider trading, we find that they often choose to trade in options, attracted by their leverage, and when they do the options share of price discovery is higher. Our results help interpret conflicting findings in the existing literature.
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