As part of the National Weather Service (NWS) Modernization and Restructuring Program, WSR-88D (NE-XRAD) Doppler radar installation has been completed at each Weather Service Office in Florida. Recently, this powerful new tool provided unique opportunities for Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Melbourne NEXRAD Weather Service Office personnel to investigate tropical cyclone (TC) rainbands for evidence of tornadogenesis. This study provides a radar-based analysis of known tornadic mesocyclones associated with two mature tropical cyclones that were not landfalling in the vicinity of the tornado occurrence, namely, Tropical Storm Gordon (1994) and Hurricane Allison (1995). Based on successful NEXRAD sampling strategies, detailed analyses of storm-scale reflectivity and velocity signatures are conducted in the context of establishing preliminary critical criteria for use in the tornado detection and warning process. Important characteristics were found to include detection of discrete, small diameter Ͼ50 dBZ echos collocated with storm-relative rotational velocities of 6.5-15 m s Ϫ1. Rotational features, although often subtle, were identifiable for an average of 30 min prior to tornado production, with total durations of 1-2 h. Near the time of tornado touchdown, the core diameter of the lowlevel circulation couplets contracted to approximately 1.85 km (1 n mi), leading to an associated increase of shear across the circulation to 0.010 s Ϫ1 or greater. A comparison between the well-studied Great Plains tornadic supercell and the observed TC-tornado cells revealed a common trait of persistence. While the average depth of rotation associated with the TC-tornado cells (3.5 km) was much more shallow than their midwest counterparts, the ratio of depth of rotation to storm top were comparable. However, the shallow depth and weaker detectable rotation of the TC (tornadic) mesocyclones greatly reduced the detection capability of the current WSR-88D mesocyclone algorithm when compared to identification of traditional supercells. Based upon the analyzed data, the authors offer several recommendations to assist operational radar meteorologists with the challenging task of detecting outer rainband tornadoes. Additionally, the authors propose a new WSR-88D scan strategy (volume coverage pattern, VCP) that would provide additional low-level slices in lieu of several current upper-elevation angles. This new VCP would facilitate improved vertical sampling at lower heights where TC mesoscale circulations are most likely to be detected.
A sea surface temperature (SST) analysis system designed to initialize short-term atmospheric model forecasts is evaluated for a month-long, relatively clear period in May 2004. System inputs include retrieved SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-East and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The GOES SSTs are processed via a sequence of quality control and bias correction steps and are then composited. The MODIS SSTs are bias corrected and checked against the background field (GOES composites) prior to assimilation. Buoy data, withheld from the analyses, are used to bias correct the MODIS and GOES SSTs and to evaluate both the composites and analyses. The bias correction improves the identification of residual cloud-contaminated MODIS SSTs. The largest analysis system improvements are obtained from the adjustments associated with the creation of the GOES composites (i.e., a reduction in buoy/GOES composite rmse on the order of 0.3°-0.5°C). A total of 120 analyses (80 night and 40 day) are repeated for different experimental configurations designed to test the impact of the GOES composites, MODIS cloud mask, spatially varying background error covariance and decorrelation length scales, data reduction, and anisotropy. For the May 2004 period, the nighttime MODIS cloud mask is too conservative, at times removing good SST data and degrading the analyses. Nocturnal error variance estimates are approximately half that of the daytime and are relatively spatially homogeneous, indicating that the nighttime composites are, in general, superior. A 30-day climatological SST gradient is used to create anisotropic weights and a spatially varying length scale. The former improve the analyses in regions with significant SST gradients and sufficient data while the latter reduces the analysis rmse in regions where the innovations tend to be well correlated with distinct and persistent SST gradients (e.g., Loop Current). Data thinning reduces the rmse by expediting analysis convergence while simultaneously enhancing the computational efficiency of the analysis system. Based on these findings, an operational analysis configuration is proposed.
The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) to support operational short-range weather forecasting over east-central Florida, including the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ADAS was modified to assimilate nationally and locally available in situ and remotely sensed observational data into a series of high-resolution gridded analyses every 15 min. The goal for running ADAS over east-central Florida is to generate real-time analysis products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (Ͻ6 h) forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the National Weather Service (NWS) at Melbourne, Florida (MLB). The locally configured ADAS has the potential to provide added value because it ingests all operationally available data into a single grid analysis at high spatial and temporal resolutions. ADAS-generated grid analyses can provide forecasters with a tool to develop a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features than could be obtained by individually examining the disparate data sources. The potential utility of this ADAS configuration to operational forecasters is demonstrated through a postanalysis case study of a thunderstorm outflow boundary that postponed an Atlas space launch mission, and a Florida coolseason squall line event. In the Atlas case study, a thunderstorm outflow boundary generated strong winds that exceeded the Atlas vehicle limits. A diagnosis of this event, using analysis products during the decaying phase of a Florida summer thunderstorm, illustrates the potential benefits that may be provided to forecasters supporting space launch and landing operations, and to NWS MLB meteorologists generating short-range forecast products. The evolution of analyzed cloud fields from the squall line event were used to track the areal coverage and tendencies of cloud ceiling and cloud-top heights that impact the evaluation of space operation weather constraints and NWS aviation products. These cases also illustrate how the analyses can provide guidance for nowcasts and short-range forecasts of Florida warm-season convection and fire-weather parameters. In addition, some of the sensitivities of the ADAS analyses to selected observational data sources are discussed. Recently, a real-time version of ADAS was implemented at both SMG and the NWS MLB forecast offices. Future plans of this ADAS configuration include incorporating additional observational datasets and designing visualization products for specific forecast tasks. Finally, the ultimate goal is to use these ADAS analyses to initialize a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model run locally at SMG and the NWS MLB, in order to develop a cycling scheme that preserves fine-scale features such as convective outflow boundaries in shortrange numerical forecasts.
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