SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages.MethodsWe estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs.FindingsIn 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000–763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95ÙI 56·0–65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI −0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940–2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction.InterpretationLRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

SummaryBackgroundAn understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories.MethodsWe analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes.FindingsGlobally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0).InterpretationDespite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should i...

BackgroundDespite control efforts, human schistosomiasis remains prevalent throughout Africa, Asia, and South America. The global schistosomiasis burden has changed little since the new anthelmintic drug, praziquantel, promised widespread control.MethodologyWe evaluated large-scale schistosomiasis control attempts over the past century and across the globe by identifying factors that predict control program success: snail control (e.g., molluscicides or biological control), mass drug administrations (MDA) with praziquantel, or a combined strategy using both. For data, we compiled historical information on control tactics and their quantitative outcomes for all 83 countries and territories in which: (i) schistosomiasis was allegedly endemic during the 20th century, and (ii) schistosomiasis remains endemic, or (iii) schistosomiasis has been "eliminated," or is "no longer endemic," or transmission has been interrupted.Principal FindingsWidespread snail control reduced prevalence by 92 ± 5% (N = 19) vs. 37 ± 7% (N = 29) for programs using little or no snail control. In addition, ecological, economic, and political factors contributed to schistosomiasis elimination. For instance, snail control was most common and widespread in wealthier countries and when control began earlier in the 20th century.Conclusions/SignificanceSnail control has been the most effective way to reduce schistosomiasis prevalence. Despite evidence that snail control leads to long-term disease reduction and elimination, most current schistosomiasis control efforts emphasize MDA using praziquantel over snail control. Combining drug-based control programs with affordable snail control seems the best strategy for eliminating schistosomiasis.

BackgroundDiarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 in Africa, responsible for an estimated 30,000,000 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI], 27,000,000 - 33,000,000) severe cases and 330,000 (95% UI, 270,000 - 380,000) deaths in 2015. Developing targeted approaches to combat this burden is hampered by the lack of comprehensive, fine-scale diarrhea estimates between and within countries. MethodsAnnual estimates of diarrheal prevalence, incidence, and mortality were produced with high geographic detail (5-km2) across Africa from 2000 to 2015. Estimates were created using Bayesian geostatistical techniques, and were calibrated to the results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. ResultsThe results revealed geographic inequality in diarrhea risk in Africa. Of the estimated 330,000 childhood deaths attributable to diarrhea in 2015, over 50% occurred in only 55 (of the 782) first administrative subdivisions. In 2015, mortality rates between first administrative subdivisions in Nigeria exhibited six-fold differences. The case fatality ratio is highly variable at the national level across Africa, with the highest values observed in Lesotho, Mali, Benin, and Nigeria. ConclusionsOur findings show concentrated areas of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea across countries with consistently high burden as well as countries that experienced considerable national-level improvements. In the era of precision public health, the distribution of limited resources can be optimized with proven interventions, targeted at locations most likely to have a high impact, reducing the avertable burden of diarrheal diseases.

SummaryBackgroundDiarrhoea is a leading cause of death and illness globally among children younger than 5 years. Mortality and short-term morbidity cause substantial burden of disease but probably underestimate the true effect of diarrhoea on population health. This underestimation is because diarrhoeal diseases can negatively affect early childhood growth, probably through enteric dysfunction and impaired uptake of macronutrients and micronutrients. We attempt to quantify the long-term sequelae associated with childhood growth impairment due to diarrhoea.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study framework and leveraged existing estimates of diarrhoea incidence, childhood undernutrition, and infectious disease burden to estimate the effect of diarrhoeal diseases on physical growth, including weight and height, and subsequent disease among children younger than 5 years. The burden of diarrhoea was measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite metric of mortality and morbidity. We hypothesised that diarrhoea is negatively associated with three common markers of growth: weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and height-for-age Z-scores. On the basis of these undernutrition exposures, we applied a counterfactual approach to quantify the relative risk of infectious disease (subsequent diarrhoea, lower respiratory infection, and measles) and protein energy malnutrition morbidity and mortality per day of diarrhoea and quantified the burden of diarrhoeal disease due to these outcomes caused by undernutrition.FindingsDiarrhoea episodes are significantly associated with childhood growth faltering. We found that each day of diarrhoea was associated with height-for-age Z-score (–0·0033 [95% CI −0·0024 to −0·0041]; p=4·43 × 10−14), weight-for-age Z-score (–0·0077 [–0·0058 to −0·0097]; p=3·19 × 10−15), and weight-for-height Z-score (–0·0096 [–0·0067 to −0·0125]; p=7·78 × 10−11). After addition of the DALYs due to the long-term sequelae as a consequence of undernutrition, the burden of diarrhoeal diseases increased by 39·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·0–46·6) and was responsible for 55 778 000 DALYs (95% UI 49 125 400–62 396 200) among children younger than 5 years in 2016. Among the 15 652 300 DALYs (95% UI 12 951 300–18 806 100) associated with undernutrition due to diarrhoeal episodes, more than 84·7% are due to increased risk of infectious disease, whereas the remaining 15·3% of long-term DALYs are due to increased prevalence of protein energy malnutrition. The burden of diarrhoea has decreased substantially since 1990, but progress has been greater in long-term (78·7% reduction [95% UI 69·3–85·5]) than in acute (70·4% reduction [95% UI 61·7–76·5]) DALYs.InterpretationDiarrhoea represents an even larger burden of disease than was estimated in the Global Burden of Disease Study. In order to adequately address the burden of its long-term sequelae, a renewed emphasis on controlling the risk of diarrhoea incidence may be required. This renewed effort can help further prev...

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk (and medications, oral rehydration salts and vitamins as needed) with no additional food or drink for their first six months of life—is one of the most effective strategies for preventing child mortality1–4. Despite these advantages, only 37% of infants under 6 months of age in Africa were exclusively breastfed in 20175, and the practice of EBF varies by population. Here, we present a fine-scale geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence and trends in 49 African countries from 2000–2017, providing policy-relevant administrative- and national-level estimates. Previous national-level analyses found that most countries will not meet the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of 50% EBF prevalence by 20256. Our analyses show that even fewer will achieve this ambition in all subnational areas. Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational EBF variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support.

Schistosomiasis -a parasitic disease that affects over 200 million people across the globe -is primarily transmitted between human definitive hosts and snail intermediate hosts. To reduce schistosomiasis transmission, some have advocated disrupting the schistosome life cycle through biological control of snails, achieved by boosting the abundance of snails' natural predators. But little is known about the effect of parasitic infection on predator-prey interactions, especially in the case of schistosomiasis. Here, we present the results of laboratory experiments performed on Bulinus truncatus and Biomphalaria glabrata snails to investigate: (i) rates of predation on schistosome-infected versus uninfected snails by a sympatric native river prawn, Macrobrachium vollenhovenii, and (ii) differences in snail behavior (including movement, refuge-seeking and anti-predator behavior) between infected and uninfected snails. In predation trials, prawns showed a preference for consuming snails infected with schistosome larvae. In behavioral trials, infected snails moved less quickly and less often than uninfected snails, and were less likely to avoid predation by exiting the water or hiding under substrate. Although the mechanism by which the parasite alters snail behavior remains unknown, these results provide insight into the effects of parasitic infection on predator-prey dynamics and suggest that boosting natural rates of predation on snails may be a useful strategy for reducing transmission in schistosomiasis hotspots.

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5, despite the existence of vaccines against many of their aetiologies. Furthermore, more than half of these deaths occur in Africa. Geospatial models can provide highly detailed estimates of trends subnationally, at the level where implementation of health policies has the greatest impact. We used Bayesian geostatistical modelling to estimate LRI incidence, prevalence and mortality in children under 5 subnationally in Africa for 2000–2017, using surveys covering 1.46 million children and 9,215,000 cases of LRI. Our model reveals large within-country variation in both health burden and its change over time. While reductions in childhood morbidity and mortality due to LRI were estimated for almost every country, we expose a cluster of residual high risk across seven countries, which averages 5.5 LRI deaths per 1,000 children per year. The preventable nature of the vast majority of LRI deaths mandates focused health system efforts in specific locations with the highest burden.