Atherosclerosis is the one of the major causes of mortality worldwide, urging the need for prevention strategies. In this work, a novel computational model is developed, which is used for simulation of plaque growth to 94 realistic 3D reconstructed coronary arteries. This model considers several factors of the atherosclerotic process even mechanical factors such as the effect of endothelial shear stress, responsible for the initiation of atherosclerosis, and biological factors such as the accumulation of low and high density lipoproteins (LDL and HDL), monocytes, macrophages, cytokines, nitric oxide and formation of foams cells or proliferation of contractile and synthetic smooth muscle cells (SMCs). The model is validated using the serial imaging of CTCA comparing the simulated geometries with the real follow-up arteries. Additionally, we examine the predictive capability of the model to identify regions prone of disease progression. The results presented good correlation between the simulated lumen area (P < 0.0001), plaque area (P < 0.0001) and plaque burden (P < 0.0001) with the realistic ones. Finally, disease progression is achieved with 80% accuracy with many of the computational results being independent predictors.

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Background: coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is a first line non-invasive imaging modality for detection of coronary atherosclerosis. Computational modeling with lipidomics analysis can be used for prediction of coronary atherosclerotic plaque progression. Methods: 187 patients (480 vessels) with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing CCTA scan at baseline and after 6.2 ± 1.4 years were selected from the SMARTool clinical study cohort (Clinicaltrial.gov Identifiers NCT04448691) according to a computed tomography (CT) scan image quality suitable for three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of coronary arteries and the absence of implanted coronary stents. Clinical and biohumoral data were collected, and plasma lipidomics analysis was performed. Blood flow and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) transport were modeled using patient-specific data to estimate endothelial shear stress (ESS) and LDL accumulation based on a previously developed methodology. Additionally, non-invasive Fractional Flow Reserve (FFR) was calculated (SmartFFR). Plaque progression was defined as significant change of at least two of the morphological metrics: lumen area, plaque area, plaque burden. Results: a multi-parametric predictive model, including traditional risk factors, plasma lipids, 3D imaging parameters, and computational data demonstrated 88% accuracy to predict site-specific plaque progression, outperforming current computational models. Conclusions: Low ESS and LDL accumulation, estimated by computational modeling of CCTA imaging, can be used to predict site-specific progression of coronary atherosclerotic plaques.

Aims: In this study, we evaluate the efficacy of SmartFFR, a new functional index of coronary stenosis severity compared with gold standard invasive measurement of fractional flow reserve (FFR). We also assess the influence of the type of simulation employed on smartFFR (i.e. Fluid Structure Interaction vs. rigid wall assumption).Methods and Results: In a dataset of 167 patients undergoing either computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) and invasive coronary angiography or only invasive coronary angiography (ICA), as well as invasive FFR measurement, SmartFFR was computed after the 3D reconstruction of the vessels of interest and the subsequent blood flow simulations. 202 vessels were analyzed with a mean total computational time of seven minutes. SmartFFR was used to process all models reconstructed by either method. The mean FFR value of the examined dataset was 0.846 ± 0.089 with 95% CI for the mean of 0.833–0.858, whereas the mean SmartFFR value was 0.853 ± 0.095 with 95% CI for the mean of 0.84–0.866. SmartFFR was significantly correlated with invasive FFR values (RCCTA = 0.86, pCCTA &lt; 0.0001, RICA = 0.84, pICA &lt; 0.0001, Roverall = 0.833, poverall &lt; 0.0001), showing good agreement as depicted by the Bland-Altman method of analysis. The optimal SmartFFR threshold to diagnose ischemia was ≤0.83 for the overall dataset, ≤0.83 for the CTCA-derived dataset and ≤0.81 for the ICA-derived dataset, as defined by a ROC analysis (AUCoverall = 0.956, p &lt; 0.001, AUCICA = 0.975, p &lt; 0.001, AUCCCTA = 0.952, p &lt; 0.001).Conclusion: SmartFFR is a fast and accurate on-site index of hemodynamic significance of coronary stenosis both at single coronary segment and at two or more branches level simultaneously, which can be applied to all CTCA or ICA sequences of acceptable quality.