Eastern Europe and Central Asia is a major food producer and exporter. Almost a quarter of world wheat exports come from the region, and especially from Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (RUK). The potential of these countries to become a "bread basket" for the world has been emphasized because of already large production and exports and their "immense land and yield reserves", referring to the abandonment of more than 50 million hectares of cropland and the large drop in crop productivity in the 1990s. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential of this land for food production. In this paper we review interdisciplinary literature and empirical evidence, predictions of production potential and impacts of climate change; and discuss the potential of the region to become a reliable breadbasket of the world. From a biophysical (crop growth) perspective, under different scenarios of increased yields, land use and climate change effects, RUK could produce an additional 40 to 110 million tons of wheat compared to current production, which would be a substantial additional production. However economic incentives, in particular the evolution of food prices and competition from other crops, are likely to significantly constrain these potentials. In addition, the introduction of export restrictions during recent times of high prices raised concerns on the reliability of RUK as exporters.

In this paper, we analyse how smallholder farms have evolved during the transition process in former communist countries and how this process has differed across countries and commodities. The role of smallholders in agriculture differs among transition countries, and this diversity is due to a combination of factors, including capital, labour and land endowments, income levels, scale economies, market imperfections, and reform choices. Institutions to access inputs and sell outputs affect the efficiency and survival of smallholders. In the past decade, the share of smallholders in land use and production has declined significantly as younger and more dynamic smallholders have become integrated in modern value chains, whereas older, less dynamic farmers have (semi‐)retired, producing only for household consumption.

Global) value chains have contributed to agricultural technology adoption in transition countries and food export commodities in developing countries through various forms of vertical coordination, often associated with FDI. Adoption of modern technologies in agriculture is crucial for improving the productivity and welfare of poor farmers. Much less is known about how (global) value chains do (not) affect technology transfer and/or adoption in staple food chains in developing countries, and the role that FDI plays. Our paper analyses the role of value chains and FDI in farm-level technology adoption with the use of panel data from representative farm surveys in 2008 and 2015 (a period of rapid growth) in the dairy sector in India (Punjab). We find important increases in the adoption of some technologies among traditional and poor dairy farms. However, the role of vertical coordination in value chains in stimulating technology adoption among these traditional dairy farmers seems to be minor, both for domestic and for FDI companies. At the same time a sub-sector of dynamic modern dairy farms has emerged. These farms are much larger, use only modern technology, and are fully integrated in vertically coordinated value chains that support these modern farms' management and investments.

The transition countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are often jointly grouped (as they are in this chapter) because of their common institutional history. However, this is a very heterogeneous set of countries, in terms of their geography, culture, political systems, general economic development, and agricultural development and potential, as shown in Table 7.1. This table groups the countries by (sub)region, and we will use these groups to examine some of the main changes during transition and future potential developments.These countries' economic and institutional transformation in the 1990s and 2000s had a dramatic impact on their land use, food production, poverty, and food security. However, the pace and current stage of transition from socialist-planned to market economy differ strongly between countries. Some are now full market economies (such as the Eastern European countries within the European Union [EU]). However in others (such as Belarus and Uzbekistan), state regulation and control are still widespread. Yet, for the vast majority of countries in the region, the economic liberalization and transition caused dramatic changes in agricultural productivity, output, and consumption, as well as in the food system.In many ECA countries, food security worsened and poverty increased during the transition process in the 1990s. However, since 2000 the ECA region has experienced significant growth and rising incomes, which have substantially reduced poverty and undernourishment and improved food security. Yet, undernourishment remains a problem in some of the poorer Caucasus and Central Asian states. Diets are also of low quality in many of these countries, resulting in micronutrient deficiencies. On the other hand, as ECA This study was supported by the Methusalem program of KU Leuven and by the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The findings and conclusions in this chapter are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or US Government determination or policy.