Objectives To illustrate how patient risk and clinical costs are driven by false-positive and false-negative results. Methods Molecular, antigen, and antibody testing are the mainstay to identify infected patients and fight the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To evaluate the test methods, sensitivity (percent positive agreement [PPA]) and specificity (percent negative agreement [PNA]) are the most common metrics utilized, followed by the positive and negative predictive value—the probability that a positive or negative test result represents a true positive or negative patient. The number, probability, and cost of false results are driven by combinations of prevalence, PPA, and PNA of the individual test selected by the laboratory. Results Molecular and antigen tests that detect the presence of the virus are relevant in the acute phase only. Serologic assays detect antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the recovering and recovered phase. Each testing methodology has its advantages and disadvantages. Conclusions We demonstrate the value of reporting probability of false-positive results, probability of false-negative results, and costs to patients and health care. These risk metrics can be calculated from the risk drivers of PPA and PNA combined with estimates of prevalence, cost, and Reff number (people infected by 1 positive SARS-CoV-2 carrier).
Background: Acute Pancreatitis is a common disease with wide clinical variation and its incidence is increasing. Acute pancreatitis is an inflammatory process leading to abdominal pain, progressive destruction of exocrine tissue and in some patients a loss of endocrine tissue as well, with multiple organ failure and high mortality. Severity of acute pancreatitis is linked to the presence of systemic organ dysfunction and/or necrotizing pancreatitis. Aims and Objective: The present study was aimed to study the clinical profile of acute pancreatitis, the etiology and complications of acute pancreatitis received treatment in the Department of Surgery, Tripura Medical College & Dr. BRAM Teaching Hospital, Agartala, Tripura. Materials and Methods: This was a hospital based retrospective study which was conducted from January 2019 to December 2019. All patients with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were included in this study in order to find out the clinical presentations from the available clinical, laboratory and radiological data. Result: Of the 100 patients in this study, 96 were male and 4 were female. Minimum age in our study was 10 years and maximum were 70 years. Maximum numbers of patients were below 45 years of age. Alcohol was identified as the most important etiological factor associated with acute pancreatitis. Among the known etiological factors 90% of the cases were related to alcoholism and 4% were due to gall stone disease. Abdominal pain and vomiting were the most common symptoms in our study. Epigastric tenderness was present in 90% of the cases and guarding/rigidity in 50% of cases. 14% patients showed jaundice as a sign of acute pancreatitis. There was no major difference between the CT grading system and clinical grading system. Most of the patients recovered with conservative treatment. Adverse outcome was noted in one patient with acute necrotizing pancreatitis. Conclusion: Acute pancreatitis is one of the leading causes of increase in morbidity and mortality to society. Clinical assessment along with radiological findings correlated well with the morbidity and mortality. Our study identifies alcoholism as one of the most important etiological factors.
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