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The global temperature targets of limiting surface warming to below 2.0°C or even to 1.5°C have been widely accepted through the Paris Agreement. However, limiting surface warming has previously been proven insufficient to control sea level rise (SLR). Here, we explore a sea level target that is closer to coastal planning and associated adaptation measures than a temperature target. We find that a sea level target provides an optimal temperature overshoot profile through a physical constraint of SLR. The allowable temperature overshoot leads to lower mitigation costs and more effective long-term sea level stabilization compared to a temperature target leading to the same SLR by 2200. With the same mitigation cost as the temperature target, a SLR target could bring surface warming back to the targeted temperatures within this century, lead to a reduction of surface warming of the next century, and reduce and slow down SLR in the centuries thereafter.
There is an ongoing discussion concerning the relationship between social welfare and climate change, and thus the required level and type of measures needed to protect the climate. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been extended to incorporate technological progress, heterogeneity and uncertainty, making use of a (stochastic) dynamic equilibrium approach in order to derive a solution. According to the literature, the IAM class of models does not take all the relationships among economic, social and environmental factors into account. Moreover, it does not consider these interdependencies at the micro-level, meaning that all possible consequences are not duly examined. Here, we propose an agent-based approach to analyse the relationship between economic welfare and climate protection. In particular, our aim is to examine how the decisions of individual agents, allowing for the trade-o between economic welfare and climate protection, influence the aggregated emergent economic behaviour. Using this model, we estimate a damage function, with values in the order %-% for °C temperature increase and having a linear (or slightly concave) shape. We show that the heterogeneity of the agents, technological progress and the damage function may lead to lower GDP growth rates and greater temperature-related damage than what is forecast by models with solely homogeneous (representative) agents.
Abstract. We calculate the size of the shadow economy within a multi-agent econophysics model previously developed for the study of tax evasion. In particular, we analyze deviating behavior depending on the fraction of rational agents which aim to pursue their self interest. Two audit mechanisms are considered within our model, that are, (i) a constant compliance period which is enforced after black market activities of an agent have been detected and (ii) a backauditing method which determines the compliance period according to the particpation rate in the shadow economy within a previously preassigned time interval. We calibrate our simulation with respect to experimental evidence of tax compliance in France and Germany and give estimates for the percentage of selfish agents in these countries. This implies different policy recommendations that may work to fight the shadow economy, tax evasion, and the like.
We investigate a heterogeneous Ising model in the context of tax evasion dynamics, where different types of agents are parameterised via local temperatures and magnetic fields. Our work focuses on the dynamic behavioural change of agents after an audit, which either corresponds to a temporal reduction or enhancement of compliance, also known under the terms of ‘bomb crater effect’ and ‘target effect’, respectively. We analyse this effect for different types of agents: endogenously non-compliant types; agents that have a tendency to copy (non-)compliant behaviour from their social environment; ethical agents with strong endogenous moral attitudes; and random types that show large fluctuations between compliant and non-compliant behaviour. Each type influences overall tax evasion differently and our model predicts that, interestingly, increasing the audit probability can have the counter-intuitive effect of increasing tax evasion under certain circumstances. We analyse audit strategies that can suppress this effect, and thus contribute to the burgeoning literature on the actual impact of tax audits.
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