No abstract

Events that disrupt customer–supplier relationships pose a source of risk for suppliers that depend on a customer for a large portion of their revenues. We identify the replacement of a customer’s chief executive officer (CEO) as a disruptive event that results in suppliers losing substantial sales. These losses are greater when an incumbent customer CEO is more likely to be entrenched and stem largely from the successor divesting assets. Finally, we document that losses in sales following a customer CEO turnover lead to declines in a supplier’s financial performance and that suppliers experience negative abnormal stock returns to announcements of customer CEO departures.

Because of clear economic links among industry peers, prior work has focused on documenting industry peer effects in various settings. Yet, while links also exist among firms in the same geographic area, few studies document geographic peer effects. We fill this gap by examining whether there are geographic peer effects in management earnings forecasts. We find that the likelihood that a firm voluntarily provides an earnings forecast is sensitive to the extent to which other firms in the same geographic area provide earnings forecasts. This geographic peer effect in forecasting is stronger for firms with greater exposure to local institutional investors, and when firms do forecast, liquidity improves more when a larger fraction of their geographic peers forecast. Furthermore, we use instrumental variable techniques to help alleviate the concern that these geographic peer effects are driven by omitted local economic factors that can lead firms to make similar disclosure decisions. Overall, our findings suggest that geographic peer effects in disclosure choices arise in part due to firms responding to capital market incentives created by local investors. Our study, therefore, contributes to the literature by documenting a unique dimension of forecasting decisions.

Economic downturns create uncertainty about a firm's operations and make it disproportionately harder for outside market participants to assess the firm's prospects. We posit that in this environment, management earnings forecasts will be more informative to investors and analysts. Consistent with this prediction, we find larger stock price reactions and analyst forecast revisions to news in management forecasts during downturns. Holding the amount of news in forecasts constant, stock price reactions to management forecasts are also greater than those to analyst forecasts. We also find that relative to analyst forecasts, management forecast accuracy increases during downturns, suggesting that investors justifiably assess management forecasts as more informative. Overall, we document that macroeconomic conditions

Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. All errors and omissions are our own.