Drought events are increasing globally, and reports of consequent forest mortality are widespread. However, due to a lack of a quantitative global synthesis, it is still not clear whether droughtinduced mortality rates differ among global biomes and whether functional traits influence the risk of drought-induced mortality. To address these uncertainties, we performed a global metaanalysis of 58 studies of drought-induced forest mortality. Mortality rates were modelled as a function of drought, temperature, biomes, phylogenetic and functional groups and functional traits. We identified a consistent global-scale response, where mortality increased with drought severity [log mortality (trees trees À1 year À1 ) increased 0.46 (95% CI = 0.2-0.7) with one SPEI unit drought intensity]. We found no significant differences in the magnitude of the response depending on forest biomes or between angiosperms and gymnosperms or evergreen and deciduous tree species. Functional traits explained some of the variation in drought responses between species (i.e. increased from 30 to 37% when wood density and specific leaf area were included). Tree species with denser wood and lower specific leaf area showed lower mortality responses. Our results illustrate the value of functional traits for understanding patterns of drought-induced tree mortality and suggest that mortality could become increasingly widespread in the future.

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large‐scale forest mortality events will have far‐reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die‐off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long‐lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self‐thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole‐tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large‐scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids thus fail to reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions are controlled and most terrestrial species reside. Here we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all of the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding 2 m gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (3.6 ± 2.3°C warmer than gridded air temperature), whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (0.7 ± 2.3°C cooler). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets underpin that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining global gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Intense droughts combined with increased temperatures are one of the major threats to forest persistence in the 21st century. Despite the direct impact of climate change on forest growth and shifts in species abundance, the effect of altered demography on changes in the composition of functional traits is not well known. We sought to (1) quantify the recent changes in functional composition of European forests; (2) identify the relative importance of climate change, mean climate and forest development for changes in functional composition; and (3) analyse the roles of tree mortality and growth underlying any functional changes in different forest types. We quantified changes in functional composition from the 1980s to the 2000s across Europe by two dimensions of functional trait variation: the first dimension was mainly related to changes in leaf mass per area and wood density (partially related to the trait differences between angiosperms and gymnosperms), and the second dimension was related to changes in maximum tree height. Our results indicate that climate change and mean climatic effects strongly interacted with forest development and it was not possible to completely disentangle their effects. Where recent climate change was not too extreme, the patterns of functional change generally followed the expected patterns under secondary succession (e.g. towards late‐successional short‐statured hardwoods in Mediterranean forests and taller gymnosperms in boreal forests) and latitudinal gradients (e.g. larger proportion of gymnosperm‐like strategies at low water availability in forests formerly dominated by broad‐leaved deciduous species). Recent climate change generally favoured the dominance of angiosperm‐like related traits under increased temperature and intense droughts. Our results show functional composition changes over relatively short time scales in European forests. These changes are largely determined by tree mortality, which should be further investigated and modelled to adequately predict the impacts of climate change on forest function.

Research in environmental science relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature at around 2 meter above ground1-3. These climatic grids however fail to reflect conditions near and below the soil surface, where critical ecosystem functions such as soil carbon storage are controlled and most biodiversity resides4-8. By using soil temperature time series from over 8500 locations across all of the world’s terrestrial biomes4, we derived global maps of soil temperature-related variables at 1 km resolution for the 0–5 and 5–15 cm depth horizons. Based on these maps, we show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding 2 m gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C, with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Soils in cold and/or dry biomes are annually substantially warmer (3.6°C ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are slightly cooler (0.7 ± 2.3°C). As a result, annual soil temperature varies less (by 17%) across the globe than air temperature. The effect of macroclimatic conditions on the difference between soil and air temperature highlights the importance of considering that macroclimate warming may not result in the same level of soil temperature warming. Similarly, changes in precipitation could alter the relationship between soil and air temperature, with implications for soil-atmosphere feedbacks9. Our results underpin that the impacts of climate and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments.