Towards disaster resilience: A scenario-based approach to co-producing and integrating hazard and risk knowledge, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016Reduction, http://dx.doi.org/10. /j.ijdrr.2015 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. Quantitative risk assessment and risk management processes are critically examined in the context 8 of their applicability to the statistically infrequent and sometimes unforeseen events that trigger 9 major disasters. While of value when applied at regional or larger scales by governments and 10 insurance companies, these processes do not provide a rational basis for reducing the impacts of 11 major disasters at the local (community) level because in any given locality disaster events occur too 12 infrequently for their future occurrence in a realistic timeframe to be accurately predicted by 13 statistics. Given that regional and national strategies for disaster reduction cannot be effective 14 without effective local disaster reduction measures, this is a significant problem. Instead, we suggest 15 that communities, local government officials, civil society organisations and scientists could usefully 16 form teams to co-develop local hazard event and effects scenarios, around which the teams can 17 then develop realistic long-term plans for building local resilience. These plans may also be of value 18 in reducing the impacts of other disasters, and are likely to have the additional benefits of improving 19 science development, relevance and uptake, and of enhancing communication between scientists 20 and the public. 21
The concept of 'resilience' has recently gained traction in a range of contexts. Its various interpretations and framings are now used to examine a variety of issues, particularly relating to the human dimensions of global change. This can pose challenges to scholars, practitioners, and policy-makers seeking to develop focused research programmes, design targeted interventions, and communicate across disciplinary boundaries. The concept of resilience is widely used in Aotearoa-New Zealand, where it informs both government policy and research programmes. Resilience is particularly relevant in this small developed nation, which is heavily reliant on primary production in rural areas and affected by a range of geological and climatic hazards. To understand the range and extent of application of resilience in the rural context, we use systematic review methods to identify, characterise, and synthesise this knowledge base. Currently, research applying the concept of resilience in the rural context is limited in areal extent, largely quantitative in nature, and led by a small number of researchers. There is limited evidence of collaboration. Research has focused on a small number of hazards, failing to capture the diversity of risks and hazards in addition to their impacts. The results of our analysis and methodology offer important insights for meta-analyses of risk and hazard scholarship. The findings provide a baseline to track the future progress and effectiveness of resilience interventions and help inform current and future research priorities targeting persistent vulnerabilities in rural New Zealand and elsewhere.
Over the last four decades, volcano observatories have adopted a number of different communication strategies for the dissemination of information on changes in volcanic behaviour and potential hazards to a wide range of user groups. These commonly include a standardised volcano alert level system (VALS), used in conjunction with other uni-valent communication techniques (such as information statements, reports and maps) and multi-directional techniques (such as meetings and telephone calls). This research, based on interviews and observation conducted 2007–2009 at the five US Geological Survey (USGS) volcano observatories, and including some of the key users of the VALS, argues for the importance of understanding how communicating volcanic hazard information takes place as an everyday social practice, focusing on the challenges of working across the boundaries between the scientific and decision-making communities. It is now widely accepted that the effective use, value and deployment of information across science-policy interfaces of this kind depend on three criteria: the scientific credibility of the information, its relevance to the needs of stakeholders and the legitimacy of both the information and the processes that produced it. Translation and two-way communication are required to ensure that all involved understand what information is credible and relevant. Findings indicate that whilst VALS play a role in raising awareness of an unfolding situation, supplementary communication techniques are crucial in facilitating situational understanding of that situation, and the uncertainties inherent to its scientific assessment, as well as in facilitating specific responses. In consequence, ‘best practice’ recommendations eschew further standardisation, and focus on the in situ cultivation of dialogue between scientists and stakeholders as a means of ensuring that information, and the processes through which it is produced are perceived to be legitimate by all involved.
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