This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VES) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VES <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VES of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VES ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

Lebanon * These authors contributed equally to the work. Word count: Abstract: 257 words, Main Text: 3,166 words. Number of figures: 7. Number of tables: 1. Running head: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination impact. Abstract Background: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates are currently in the pipeline. This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impact. Methods: Vaccination impact was assessed at various efficacies using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application for China. Results: A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition ( S VE ) of ≥70% is needed to eliminate this infection. A vaccine with S VE <70% will still have a major impact, and may control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, or alternatively if supplemented with a moderate social-distancing intervention (<20% reduction in contact rate), or complemented with herd immunity. Vaccination is cost-effective. For a vaccine with S VE of 50%, number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection is only 2.4, one severe disease case is 25.5, one critical disease case is 33.2, and one death is 65.1. Gains in effectiveness are achieved by initially prioritizing those ≥60 years. Probability of a major outbreak is virtually zero with a vaccine with S VE ≥70%, regardless of number of virus introductions. Yet, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. Conclusions: Even a partially-efficacious vaccine can offer a fundamental solution to control SARS-CoV-2 infection and at high cost-effectiveness. In addition to the primary endpoint on infection acquisition, developers should assess natural history and disease progression outcomes All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

The Syrian conflict has damaged key infrastructure and indirectly affected almost all parts of the Middle East and Europe, with no end in sight. Exhausting conditions created by the Syrian crisis and related massive displacement promote the emergence of numerous public health problems that fuel antimicrobial resistance (AMR) development. Here, we explore the current situation of the Syrian displaced population, and AMR inside Syria and among refugees in host countries. We then suggest a roadmap of selected key interventions and strategies to address the threat of AMR in the context of the Syrian crisis. These recommendations are intended to urge health policy-makers in governments and international health organizations to optimize and push for implementing an effective policy taking into consideration the current obstacles.

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected millions of lives globally. However, the disease has presented more extreme challenges for developing countries that are experiencing economic crises. Studies on COVID-19 symptoms and gut health are scarce and have not fully analyzed possible associations between gut health and disease pathophysiology. Therefore, this study aimed to demonstrate a potential association between gut health and COVID-19 severity in the Lebanese community, which has been experiencing a severe economic crisis. Methods This cross-sectional study investigated SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive Lebanese patients. Participants were interviewed and gut health, COVID-19 symptoms, and different metrics were analyzed using simple and multiple logistic regression models. Results Analysis of the data showed that 25% of participants were asymptomatic, while an equal proportion experienced severe symptoms, including dyspnea (22.7%), oxygen need (7.5%), and hospitalization (3.1%). The mean age of the participants was 38.3 ±0.8 years, and the majority were males (63.9%), married (68.2%), and currently employed (66.7%). A negative correlation was found between gut health score and COVID-19 symptoms (Kendall’s tau-b = -0.153, P = 0.004); indicating that low gut health was associated with more severe COVID-19 cases. Additionally, participants who reported unhealthy food intake were more likely to experience severe symptoms (Kendall’s tau-b = 0.118, P = 0.049). When all items were taken into consideration, multiple ordinal logistic regression models showed a significant association between COVID-19 symptoms and each of the following variables: working status, flu-like illness episodes, and gut health score. COVID-19 severe symptoms were more common among patients having poor gut health scores (OR:1.31, 95%CI:1.07–1.61; P = 0.008), experiencing more than one episode of flu-like illness per year (OR:2.85, 95%CI:1.58–5.15; P = 0.001), and owning a job (OR:2.00, 95%CI:1.1–3.65; P = 0.023). Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study that showed the impact of gut health and exposure to respiratory viruses on COVID-19 severity in Lebanon. These findings can facilitate combating the pandemic in Lebanon.

While COVID-19 continues to spread across the globe, diligent efforts are made to understand its attributes and dynamics to help develop treatment and prevention measures. The paradox pertaining to children being the least affected by severe illness poses exciting opportunities to investigate potential protective factors. In this paper, we propose that childhood vaccination against pertussis (whooping cough) might play a non-specific protective role against COVID-19 through heterologous adaptive responses in this young population. Pertussis is a vaccine-preventable infectious disease of the respiratory tract and it shares many similarities with COVID-19 including transmission and clinical features. Although pertussis is caused by a bacterium ( Bordetella pertussis ) while COVID-19 is a viral infection (SARS-CoV-2), previous data showed that cross-reactivity and heterologous adaptive responses can be seen with unrelated agents of highly divergent groups, such as between bacteria and viruses. While we build the arguments of this hypothesis on theoretical and previous empirical evidence, we also outline suggested lines of research from different fields to test its credibility. Besides, we highlight some concerns that may arise when attempting to consider such an approach as a potential public health preventive intervention against COVID-19.

Background Older Syrian refugees in Lebanon are a marginalized population with under-recognized health needs. The inclusivity of this population within the humanitarian response is poorly understood. This study aims to identify the unique needs of older Syrian refugees in the context of recent concurrent crises in Lebanon, and explore the extent to which they are being met and prioritized by local and international aid agencies. Methods We conducted in-depth interviews with a snowball sample of 26 stakeholders from 11 organizations operating in the health, nutrition, and water, sanitation, and hygiene sectors. Data analysis followed principles of thematic analysis. Results Concurrent political, economic, and public health crises in host country promoted income insecurity among older refugees and increased dependency on younger relatives, leading to food insecurity, neglect, and poor health outcomes, including the sequelae of untreated non-communicable diseases. Mental illness was perceived to be exacerbated by Covid-19 related challenges, including social isolation, uncertainty about the future, and additionally due to feelings of guilt related to economic dependence and fundamental exclusion from labor force participation. Despite their vulnerability, older refugees are overlooked by the humanitarian response, which may be related to a lack of data. Pervasive medication shortages in the setting of the economic collapse, as well as inaccessible physical environments and competing interests were all identified as major barriers to care. Conclusions Older Syrian refugees in Lebanon experience dual vulnerability that is acutely exacerbated in the setting of concurrent crises. Sociopolitical, economic, and cultural barriers promote social exclusion and may confer an increased risk of income and food insecurity in this population, with significant implications for health. Humanitarian aid agencies operating in the context of fragmented, under-resourced health systems are currently unable to sufficiently address multi-faceted needs of this community. We recommend moving away from a donor-dependent model of aid by allocating resources toward strengthening inclusive national health systems that emphasize preventative care. We further call for age-disaggregation of routine data and normalization of data sharing among stakeholders in the academic and public health sectors in order to develop evidence-based initiatives that can meet the needs of this under-served community.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an important global public health concern. Several studies reported a higher HEV prevalence in patients undergoing regular hemodialysis (HD). In Lebanon, the epidemiology of HEV among HD patients has never been investigated previously. In this study, we examine the seroprevalence of HEV infection among 171 HD patients recruited from three hospital dialysis units in Tripoli, North Lebanon. Prevalence of anti-HEV IgG antibodies was evaluated in participant's sera using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The association of socio-demographic and clinical parameters with HEV infection in patients was also evaluated. Overall, 96 women and 75 men were enrolled in this study. Anti-HEV IgG antibodies were found positive in 37/171 HD patients showing a positivity rate of 21.63%. Among all examined variables, only the age of patients was significantly associated with seropositivity (P = 0.001). This first epidemiological study reveals a high seroprevalence of HEV infection among Lebanese HD patients. However, further evaluations that enroll larger samples and include control groups are required to identify exact causative factors of the important seropositivity rate in this population.

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to first assess the knowledge and perception of first-year university students in Iraq about COVID-19 in general and SARS-CoV-2 latest variant of concern, and to evaluate the attitudes towards protection measures including vaccination.Study designA cross-sectional study was conducted among newly enrolled students at the American University of Iraq-Baghdad. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to test an association between the outcomes measured on a 5-point Likert scale and the binary and the categorical independent variables, respectively. χ2test was used to test the association between nominal categorical variables, while Kendall’s τ-b was used for ordinal variables.ParticipantsStudents (n=432) were invited to fill out a survey specifically tailored to assess their knowledge, perception and attitude towards Omicron variant and COVID-19 vaccines acceptance. 363 students enrolled in various majors participated in this study.ResultsAssessment of COVID-19 knowledge and perception revealed that students still lack reliable info and data about FDA-approved treatment options (70.5%), SARS-CoV-2 variants (96.5%) and approved vaccines. Students’ attitude and practices towards recommended safety measures should be reassessed to better manage the pandemic. Adherence level was shown to be associated with the belief in its capacity to effectively manage the new variant. Interestingly, 85% of the students have received at least one dose of approved vaccine. A significant positive correlation was detected between the level of adherence to recommended precautions and the intention to take a third booster shot if proven effective.ConclusionsStudents’ reliable knowledge about COVID-19 pandemic including the various strains and approved vaccines should be improved to better manage the pandemic and set foundations for a more appropriate approach when another pandemic occurs. Special workshops should be organised to ensure that students and the public have a more trusted source of information about COVID-19.