Androgenetic alopecia, known in men as male pattern baldness (MPB), is a very conspicuous condition that is particularly frequent among European men and thus contributes markedly to variation in physical appearance traits amongst Europeans. Recent studies have revealed multiple genes and polymorphisms to be associated with susceptibility to MPB. In this study, 50 candidate SNPs for androgenetic alopecia were analyzed in order to verify their potential to predict MPB. Significant associations were confirmed for 29 SNPs from chromosomes X, 1, 5, 7, 18 and 20. A simple 5-SNP prediction model and an extended 20-SNP model were developed based on a discovery panel of 305 males from various European populations fitting one of two distinct phenotype categories. The first category consisted of men below 50 years of age with significant baldness and the second; men aged 50 years or older lacking baldness. The simple model comprised the five best predictors: rs5919324 near AR, rs1998076 in the 20p11 region, rs929626 in EBF1, rs12565727 in TARDBP and rs756853 in HDAC9. The extended prediction model added 15 SNPs from five genomic regions that improved overall prevalence-adjusted predictive accuracy measured by area under the receiver characteristic operating curve (AUC). Both models were evaluated for predictive accuracy using a test set of 300 males reflecting the general European population. Applying a 65% probability threshold, high prediction sensitivity of 87.1% but low specificity of 42.4% was obtained in men aged <50 years. In men aged ≥50, prediction sensitivity was slightly lower at 67.7% while specificity reached 90%. Overall, the AUC=0.761 calculated for men at or above 50 years of age indicates these SNPs offer considerable potential for the application of genetic tests to predict MPB patterns, adding a highly informative predictive system to the emerging field of forensic analysis of externally visible characteristics.

DNA-based prediction of hair morphology, defined as straight, curly or wavy hair, could contribute to an improved description of an unknown offender and allow more accurate forensic reconstructions of physical appearance in the field of forensic DNA phenotyping. Differences in scalp hair morphology are significant at the worldwide scale and within Europe. The only genome-wide association study made to date revealed the Trichohyalin gene (TCHH) to be significantly associated with hair morphology in Europeans and reported weaker associations for WNT10A and FRAS1 genes. We conducted a study that centered on six SNPs located in these three genes with a sample of 528 individuals from Poland. The predictive capacity of the candidate DNA variants was evaluated using logistic regression; classification and regression trees; and neural networks, by applying a 10-fold cross validation procedure. Additionally, an independent test set of 142 males from six European populations was used to verify performance of the developed prediction models. Our study confirmed association of rs11803731 (TCHH), rs7349332 (WNT10A) and rs1268789 (FRAS1) SNPs with hair morphology. The combined genotype risk score for straight hair had an odds ratio of 2.7 and these predictors explained ∼ 8.2% of the total variance. The selected three SNPs were found to predict straight hair with a high sensitivity but low specificity when a 10-fold cross validation procedure was applied and the best results were obtained using the neural networks approach (AUC=0.688, sensitivity=91.2%, specificity=23.0%). Application of the neural networks model with 65% probability threshold on an additional test set gave high sensitivity (81.4%) and improved specificity (50.0%) with a total of 78.7% correct calls, but a high non-classification rate (66.9%). The combined TTGGGG SNP genotype for rs11803731, rs7349332, rs1268789 (European frequency=4.5%) of all six straight hair-associated alleles was identified as the best predictor, giving >80% probability of straight hair. Finally, association testing of 44 SNPs previously identified to be associated with male pattern baldness revealed a suggestive association with hair morphology for rs4679955 on 3q25.1. The study results reported provide the starting point for the development of a predictive test for hair morphology in Europeans. More studies are now needed to discover additional determinants of hair morphology to improve the predictive accuracy of this trait in forensic analysis.