Adaptive management of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires developing methods to evaluate whether monitoring data indicate that they are performing as expected. Modeling the expected responses of targeted species to an MPA network, with a clear timeline for those expectations, can aid in the development of a monitoring program that efficiently evaluates expectations over appropriate time frames. Here, we describe the expected trajectories in abundance and biomass following MPA implementation for populations of 19 nearshore fishery species in California. To capture the process of filling in the age structure truncated by fishing, we used age‐structured population models with stochastic larval recruitment to predict responses to MPA implementation. We implemented both demographically open (high larval immigration) and closed (high self‐recruitment) populations to model the range of possible trajectories as they depend on recruitment dynamics. From these simulations, we quantified the time scales over which anticipated increases in abundance and biomass inside MPAs would become statistically detectable. Predicted population biomass responses range from little change, for species with low fishing rates, to increasing by a factor of nearly seven, for species with high fishing rates before MPA establishment. Increases in biomass following MPA implementation are usually greater in both magnitude and statistical detectability than increases in abundance. For most species, increases in abundance would not begin to become detectable for at least 10 years after implementation. Overall, these results inform potential indicator metrics (biomass), potential indicator species (those with a high fishing : natural mortality ratio), and time frame (>10 yr) for MPA monitoring assessment as part of the adaptive management process.
Climate-smart conservation addresses the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change impacts but may require transboundary considerations. Here, we adapt and refine 16 biophysical guidelines for climate-smart marine reserves for the transboundary California Bight ecoregion. We link several climate-adaptation strategies (e.g., maintaining connectivity, representing climate refugia, and forecasting effectiveness of protection) by focusing on kelp forests and associated species. We quantify transboundary larval connectivity along ~800 km of coast and find that the number of connections and the average density of larvae dispersing through the network under future climate scenarios could decrease by ~50%, highlighting the need to protect critical steppingstone nodes. We also find that although focal species will generally recover with 30% protection, marine heatwaves could hinder subsequent recovery in the following 50 years, suggesting that protecting climate refugia and expanding the coverage of marine reserves is a priority. Together, these findings provide a first comprehensive framework for integrating climate resilience for networks of marine reserves and highlight the need for a coordinated approach in the California Bight ecoregion.
The barnacle assemblage in the high rocky intertidal zone has provided an excellent study system to examine species interaction webs. This assemblage consists of a small set of species: barnacles, a variety of macroalgae, and a suite of limpet grazers. Despite the extensive intertidal research occurring along the central California coast, little is known about this specific interaction web and what physical factors may influence it in this region. This study examines the direct, indirect, positive, and negative interactions between the intertidal barnacle Balanus glandula Darwin, the brown seaweed Pelvetiopsis limitata Gardner, and limpet grazers, and how the underlying rock type may affect this interaction web at two sites in central California. Results illustrate a significant, positive effect of B. glandula on macroalgal colonization at one site, while limpet grazers appear to be partially driving successful P. limitata recruitment at the other site. Targeted species also appear to be utilizing the substrate at each site differently, suggesting that variation in small-scale complexity and heterogeneity of the underlying rock type plays a role in shaping this interaction web. I decided to pursue a degree at Moss Landing in order to strengthen my skills as an ecologist and deepen my understanding of the scientific method, and Mike was the perfect teacher to help me do so. And I so enjoyed sharing our passion for natural history and seaweed! My first day of class at Moss Landing was spent with Dr. Ivano Aiello in his geological oceanography class. Our initial conversations and my resulting class project regarding the role of rock type in rocky intertidal communities were the foundation for this thesis research, and Ivano was more like a second advisor to me than a committee member. I never thought I could love something dead like a rock nearly as much I love seaweed! Lastly, I cannot begin to thank my third committee member, Dr. Pete Raimondi. Pete was my first scientific mentor as an undergraduate at UC Santa Cruz, and has continued to act as a mentor through it all! The opportunities he provided me throughout my career-from trips to the intertidal in Santa Cruz, to a field quarter on the coral reefs of French Polynesia, to years of employment as an intertidal research specialist-truly helped shape the young scientist I am today. Funding from the David and Lucille Packard Foundation, the Dynegy Corporation, Friends of Moss Landing Marine Labs, the Moss Landing Marine Labs Student Body Association and the Dr. Earl H. Myers and Ethel M. Myers Oceanographic and Marine Biology Trust helped make this work possible. v Many thanks to my lab mates-the BEERPIGs-for comments, ideas and inspiration during lab meetings and our lunch time lab dates. The Phycology Lab is a unique entity at Moss Landing, and I was lucky to be a BEERPIG (Benthic Ecology and Experimental Research, Phycology in General), a title that will never leave me, even after I graduate. And thanks to the well-oiled machine that is Moss Landing Marine Labs....
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