Background: Risk factors predictive of rapid linear chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and its associations with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality requires further exploration, particularly as patients with linear estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectory represent a clear paradigm for understanding true CKD progression. Methods: A linear regression slope was applied to all outpatient eGFR values for patients in the Salford Kidney Study who had ≥2 years follow-up, ≥4 eGFR values and baseline CKD stages 3a-4. An eGFR slope (ΔeGFR) of ≤ − 4 ml/min/1.73m 2 /yr defined rapid progressors, whereas − 0.5 to + 0.5 ml/min/1.73m 2 /yr defined stable patients. Binary logistic regression was utilised to explore variables associated with rapid progression and Cox proportional hazards model to determine predictors for mortality prior to ESRD. Results: There were 157 rapid progressors (median ΔeGFR − 5.93 ml/min/1.73m 2 /yr) and 179 stable patients (median ΔeGFR − 0.03 ml/min/1.73m 2 /yr). Over 5 years, rapid progressors had an annual rate of mortality or ESRD of 47 per 100 patients compared with 6 per 100 stable patients. Factors associated with rapid progression included younger age, female gender, higher diastolic pressure, higher total cholesterol:high density lipoprotein ratio, lower albumin, lower haemoglobin and a urine protein:creatinine ratio of > 50 g/mol. The latter three factors were also predictive of mortality prior to ESRD, along with older age, smoking, peripheral vascular disease and heart failure. Conclusions: There is a heterogenous interplay of risk factors associated with rapid linear CKD progression and mortality in patients with CKD. Furthermore, rapid progressors have high rates of adverse outcomes and require close specialist monitoring.

Objective β-cell microRNA-21 (miR-21) is increased by islet inflammatory stress but it decreases glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS). Thus, we sought to define the effects of miR-21 on β-cell function using in vitro and in vivo systems. Methods We developed a tetracycline-on system of pre-miR-21 induction in clonal β-cells and human islets, along with transgenic zebrafish and mouse models of β-cell-specific pre-miR-21 overexpression. Results β-cell miR-21 induction markedly reduced GSIS and led to reductions in transcription factors associated with β-cell identity and increased markers of dedifferentiation, which led us to hypothesize that miR-21 induces β-cell dysfunction by loss of cell identity. In silico analysis identified transforming growth factor-beta 2 ( Tgfb2 ) and Smad family member 2 (Smad2) mRNAs as predicted miR-21 targets associated with the maintenance of β-cell identity. Tgfb2 and Smad2 were confirmed as direct miR-21 targets through RT-PCR, immunoblot, pulldown, and luciferase assays. In vivo zebrafish and mouse models exhibited glucose intolerance, decreased peak GSIS, decreased expression of β-cell identity markers, increased insulin and glucagon co-staining cells, and reduced Tgfb2 and Smad2 expression. Conclusions These findings implicate miR-21-mediated reduction of mRNAs specifying β-cell identity as a contributor to β-cell dysfunction by the loss of cellular differentiation.

Background Secondary hyperparathyroidism may lead to increased cardiovascular risk. The use of cinacalcet may improve bone and cardiovascular health with improved parathormone (PTH) and phosphate control. Methods This is an open-label prospective randomised controlled trial to compare progression of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease mineral and bone disorder (CKD-MBD) parameters. Patients were randomised to receive cinacalcet alongside standard therapy or standard therapy alone. Thirty-six haemodialysis patients who had > 90 days on dialysis, iPTH > 300 pg/mL, calcium > 2.1 mmol/L and age 18–75 years were included. Following randomization, all 36 patients underwent an intensive 12-week period of bone disease management aiming for iPTH 150-300 pg/mL. The primary outcome was change in vascular calcification using CT agatston score. Secondary outcomes included pulse wave velocity (PWV), left ventricular mass index (LVMI), carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), augmentation index (Aix) and bone measurements. The above measurements were obtained at baseline and 12 months. Results There was no evidence of a group difference in the progression of calcification (median change (IQR) cinacalcet: 488 (0 to1539); standard therapy: 563 (50 to 1214)). In a post hoc analysis combining groups there was a mean (SD) phosphate reduction of 0.3 mmol/L (0.7) and median (IQR) iPTH reduction of 380 pg/mL (− 754, 120). Regression of LVMI and CIMT was seen (P = 0.03 and P = 0.001) and was significantly associated with change of phosphate on multi-factorial analyses. Conclusions With a policy of intense CKD-MBD parameter control, no significant benefit in bone and cardiovascular markers was seen with the addition of cinacalcet to standard therapy over one year. Tight control of hyperphosphataemia and secondary hyperparathyroidism may lead to a reduction in LVMI and CIMT but this needs further investigation. Although the sample size was small, meticulous trial supervision resulted in very few protocol deviations with therapy.

Background Patients with rapidly declining renal function face the dual threat of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality prior to ESRD. What is less well characterised is whether the pattern of the renal trajectory, linear or non-linear, unmasks subgroups of rapidly progressing patients that face adverse outcomes in a differential manner. Methods An individual eGFR slope was applied to all outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values for each patient in the Salford Kidney Study from 2002 to 2018 who had at least 2 years follow-up, ≥4 eGFR values and baseline eGFR 15 to < 60 ml/min/1.73m2. Rapid progression was defined as an annual eGFR slope of ≤ − 3 ml/min/1.73m2/yr and patients were categorised as linear or non-linear progressors based on the nature of their eGFR-time graphs. A Fine-Gray competing risk hazard model was used to determine factors associated with progression to ESRD and with mortality prior to ESRD. Cumulative incidence function curves highlighted differences in outcomes between linear and non-linear patients. Results There were 211 rapidly deteriorating patients with linear eGFR trajectories and 61 rapid non-linear patients in the study cohort. Factors associated with ESRD included younger age, male gender, lower baseline eGFR and higher serum phosphate, whilst older age, history of myocardial infarction and anaemia predicted mortality prior to ESRD. Over a median follow-up of 3.7 years, linear progressors reached ESRD sooner whilst those with non-linear progression faced significantly higher rates of mortality prior to ESRD. Conclusions Patients with rapid eGFR decline have high rates of adverse outcomes that are differentially expressed in those progressing linearly and non-linearly as a result of differing phenotypic profiles. Consequently, addressing individual risk factor profiles is important to deliver optimal personalised patient care.

Objectives The R102G variant in complement 3 (C3) results in two allotypic variants: C3 fast (C3F) and C3 slow (C3S). C3F presents at increased frequency in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), our aim is to explore its role in CKD progression and mortality. Methods Delta (Δ) eGFR for 2038 patients in the Salford Kidney Study (SKS) was calculated by linear regression; those with �-3ml/min/1.73m 2 /yr were defined as rapid progressors (RP) and those with ΔeGFR between-0.5 and +1ml/min/1.73m 2 /yr, labelled stable CKD patients (SP).A group of 454 volunteers was used as a control group. In addition, all biopsy-proven glomerulonephritis (GN) patients were studied regardless of their ΔeGFR. R102G was analysed by real-time PCR, and genotypic and allelic frequencies were compared between RP and SP along with the healthy control group.