To date, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) have been the mainstay for controlling the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While NPIs are effective in preventing health systems overload, these long-term measures are likely to have significant adverse economic consequences. Therefore, many countries are currently considering to lift the NPIs-increasing the likelihood of disease resurgence. In this regard, dynamic NPIs, with intervals of relaxed social distancing, may provide a more suitable alternative. However, the ideal frequency and duration of intermittent NPIs, and the ideal "break" when interventions can be temporarily relaxed, remain uncertain, especially in resource-poor settings. We employed a multivariate prediction model, based on up-to-date transmission and clinical parameters, to simulate outbreak trajectories in 16 countries, from diverse regions and economic categories. In each country, we then modelled the impacts on intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths over an 18-month period for following scenarios: (1) no intervention, (2) consecutive cycles of mitigation measures followed by a relaxation period, and (3) consecutive cycles of suppression measures followed by a relaxation period. We defined these dynamic interventions based on reduction of the mean reproduction number during each cycle, assuming a basic reproduction number (R 0) of 2.2 for no intervention, and subsequent effective reproduction numbers (R) of 0.8 and 0.5 for illustrative dynamic mitigation and suppression interventions, respectively. We found that dynamic cycles of 50-day mitigation followed by a 30-day relaxation reduced transmission, however, were unsuccessful in lowering ICU hospitalizations below manageable limits. By contrast, dynamic cycles of 50-day suppression followed by a 30-day relaxation kept the ICU demands below the national capacities. Additionally, we estimated that a significant number of new infections and deaths, especially in resource-poor countries, would be averted if these dynamic suppression measures were kept in place over an 18-month period. This multi-country analysis demonstrates that intermittent reductions of R below 1 through a potential combination of suppression interventions and relaxation can be an effective strategy for COVID-19 pandemic control. Such a "schedule" of social distancing might be particularly relevant to low-income countries, where a single, prolonged suppression intervention is unsustainable. Efficient implementation of dynamic suppression interventions, therefore, confers a pragmatic option to: (1) prevent critical care overload and deaths, (2) gain time to develop preventive and clinical measures, and (3) reduce economic hardship globally.

ObjectiveTo conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies investigating the association of arsenic, lead, cadmium, mercury, and copper with cardiovascular disease.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesPubMed, Embase, and Web of Science searched up to December 2017.Review methodsStudies reporting risk estimates for total cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, and stroke for levels of arsenic, lead, cadmium, mercury, or copper were included. Two investigators independently extracted information on study characteristics and outcomes in accordance with PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. Relative risks were standardised to a common scale and pooled across studies for each marker using random effects meta-analyses.ResultsThe review identified 37 unique studies comprising 348 259 non-overlapping participants, with 13 033 coronary heart disease, 4205 stroke, and 15 274 cardiovascular disease outcomes in aggregate. Comparing top versus bottom thirds of baseline levels, pooled relative risks for arsenic and lead were 1.30 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.63) and 1.43 (1.16 to 1.76) for cardiovascular disease, 1.23 (1.04 to 1.45) and 1.85 (1.27 to 2.69) for coronary heart disease, and 1.15 (0.92 to 1.43) and 1.63 (1.14 to 2.34) for stroke. Relative risks for cadmium and copper were 1.33 (1.09 to 1.64) and 1.81 (1.05 to 3.11) for cardiovascular disease, 1.29 (0.98 to 1.71) and 2.22 (1.31 to 3.74) for coronary heart disease, and 1.72 (1.29 to 2.28) and 1.29 (0.77 to 2.17) for stroke. Mercury had no distinctive association with cardiovascular outcomes. There was a linear dose-response relation for arsenic, lead, and cadmium with cardiovascular disease outcomes.ConclusionExposure to arsenic, lead, cadmium, and copper is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease. Mercury is not associated with cardiovascular risk. These findings reinforce the importance of environmental toxic metals in cardiovascular risk, beyond the roles of conventional behavioural risk factors.

AimsThe association between progestin-only contraceptive (POC) use and the risk of various cardiometabolic outcomes has rarely been studied. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the impact of POC use on cardiometabolic outcomes including venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, hypertension and diabetes.Methods and resultsNineteen observational studies (seven cohort and 12 case–control) were included in this systematic review. Of those, nine studies reported the risk of venous thromboembolism, six reported the risk of myocardial infarction, six reported the risk of stroke, three reported the risk of hypertension and two studies reported the risk of developing diabetes with POC use. The pooled adjusted relative risks (RRs) for venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and stroke for oral POC users versus non-users based on the random effects model were 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70–1.62), 0.98 (95% CI 0.66–1.47) and 1.02 (95% CI 0.72–1.44), respectively. Stratified analysis by route of administration showed that injectable POC with a RR of 2.62 (95% CI 1.74–3.94), but not oral POCs (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.7–1.62), was associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism. A decreased risk of venous thromboembolism in a subgroup of women using an intrauterine levonorgestrel device was observed with a RR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.32–0.89). No effect of POC use on blood pressure was found, but there was an indication for an increased risk of diabetes with injectable POCs, albeit non-significant.ConclusionsThis systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that oral POC use is not associated with an increased risk of developing various cardiometabolic outcomes, whereas injectable POC use might increase the risk of venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND:The effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains controversial. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE:We aimed to systematically review the evidence regarding the role of dose, route of hormone administration, timing of initiation and duration of HT on cardiovascular risk among postmenopausal women. SEARCH METHODS:The electronic databases Medline Ovid, Web of Science and Cochrane Central were systematically searched to identify studies published before 30 January 2018. Reference lists, using Elsevier's Scopus, of the included studies were searched for further identification of relevant studies. Clinical trials and observational studies that assessed clinical and subclinical cardiovascular outcomes in relation to dose, route of administration, duration of use, or timing of HT initiation among postmenopausal women were included. Data were extracted by independent reviewers using a pre-designed data collection form. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale were used by two independent investigators to assess the risk of bias in RCTs and in prospective observational studies, respectively.OUTCOMES: In total, 33 unique studies (6 trials and 27 prospective observational studies) were identified, including a total of 2 588 327 women. The synthesis of the existing knowledge on this topic was challenging due to inconsistent findings between some studies, caused by substantial diversity in scientific rigor and quality across the available literature. Overall, the evidence did not support the concerns that oral or transdermal HT increases heart disease risk. Contrary, observational data showed that a beneficial cardioprotective effect can be observed even with use of low doses of oral HT (effect of 0.3 mg/day of oral conjugated equine estrogen was similar to that seen with the standard dose of 0.625 mg/day), but clinical trials to support a cardioprotective benefit of HT in primary prevention have not been identified. Furthermore, the current data suggested that oral and transdermal HT, in dose-dependent manner and irrespective of HT formulation, may increase thromboembolic risk, as well as risk of stroke. However, transdermal estrogen with <50 μg/day of estrogen combined with micronized progesterone appears to be the safer choice with respect to thrombotic and stroke risk. Also, vaginal HT administration may play a role in myocardial infarction and stroke risk prevention, but this is based on limited evidence and requires further investigation. The timing of HT initiation and duration may be important factors to consider when prescribing HT especially in women with adverse cardiometabolic profile and pre-existing conditions such as coronary/carotid atherosclerosis, which are at risk of developing, and thus progressing to CVD. The quality of evidence was generally low or moderate and the findings were based mostly on observational data.WIDER IMPLICATIONS: Use of low-dose oral and transdermal HT appears to be safe with regard to CVD risk in women in menopausal...

Component based software development (CBSD) endeavors to deliver cost-effective and quality software systems through the selection and integration of commercially available software components. CBSD emphasizes the design and development of software systems using preexisting components. Software component reusability is an indispensable part of component based software development life cycle (CBSDLC), which consumes a significant amount of organization’s resources, that is, time and effort. It is convenient in component based software system (CBSS) to select the most suitable and appropriate software components that provide all the required functionalities. Selecting the most appropriate components is crucial for the success of the entire system. However, decisions regarding software component reusability are often made in an ad hoc manner, which ultimately results in schedule delay and lowers the entire quality system. In this paper, we have discussed the analytic network process (ANP) method for software component selection. The methodology is explained and assessed using a real life case study.

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Piracy of software is an increasing problem of modern day software industry. Piracy of software is the unlawful use of software or part of it without proper permission as described in license agreement. Software piracy is a serious crime but not taken seriously by most people. Preventing software piracy is very important for the growing software industry. Efforts are being made to prevent and detect software piracy. Several techniques have been developed most important of which is software birthmark. The birthmark of a software is the intrinsic properties of software. A recent research shows that a features based software birthmark can be used as a strong mechanism to detect piracy of a software and how much piracy performed has been performed on it. An objective measure is needed to overcome this problem and to compare features based birthmark of a software which efficiently and precisely detect piracy in reproduction of software. The proposed study presents Haar wavelet collocation method for software features (birthmark) to detect piracy. The proposed method gives an exclusive solution for the features based birthmark of software and is then further used for comparisons of birthmark. The results of the proposed study show the effectiveness in terms of accuracy and efficiency to compare the features based software.

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