Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with severe acute respiratory failure. Early identification of high-risk COVID-19 patients is crucial. We aimed to derive and validate a simple score for the prediction of severe outcomes. A retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 was carried out by the Italian Society of Internal Medicine. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables were collected at hospital admission at five hospitals. Three algorithm selection models were used to construct a predictive risk score: backward Selection, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), and Random Forest. Severe outcome was defined as the composite of need for non-invasive ventilation, need for orotracheal intubation, or death. A total of 610 patients were included in the analysis, 313 had a severe outcome. The subset for the derivation analysis included 335 patients, the subset for the validation analysis 275 patients. The LASSO selection identified 6 variables (age, history of coronary heart disease, CRP, AST, D-dimer, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) and resulted in the best performing score with an area under the curve of 0.79 in the derivation cohort and 0.80 in the validation cohort. Using a cut-off of 7 out of 13 points, sensitivity was 0.93, specificity 0.34, positive predictive value 0.59, and negative predictive value 0.82. The proposed score can identify patients at low risk for severe outcome who can be safely managed in a low-intensity setting after hospital admission for COVID-19.

Introduction Depression is a quite common comorbidity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and is thought to influence its severity. This study aims to estimate, in a large cohort of Italian patients with RA, the prevalence of depression and to investigate the clinical correlates of depression in terms of disease activity and disability. Methods This is a cross-sectional study enrolling 490 outpatients with RA (80% female, mean age 59.5). The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) was used to assess the presence of depression with a cut-off of 11. We collected data about disease activity and disability with DAS28, TJC-68, PhGA, PGA, VAS, DAS28, SDAI, CDAI and HAQ. Results Prevalence of depression was 14.3% (95% CI: 11-17%). Depressed patients, when compared with not depressed ones, were found to have higher scores for TJC-68 (p = 0.011), PhGA (p = 0.001), PGA (p = 0.001), VAS (p = 0.001), DAS28 (p = 0.007), SDAI (p = 0.001), CDAI (p = 0.001) and HAQ (p = 0.001). Out of the 70 depressed patients, 30 subjects, already known to be depressed in the past, were still depressed at the time of the assessment, with only 11 (15.7%) under antidepressants. A multivariate analysis showed that male sex, higher PGA score, use of antidepressants and higher HAQ score were significantly associated with an increased risk of depression. Conclusions Our study shows that depression is common in RA and may affect its activity mainly via an alteration in the perception of the disease. Although its important implications, depression is still under-diagnosed and its management is inadequate.