Comprehensive Trade Agreements (CTAs) constitute a new generation of free trade agreements, which challenge traditional models of trade preferences. To understand preferences toward CTAs I present a new predictor, trust in government, that explains support for CTAs in the European Parliament. I develop a unified framework that includes economic and noneconomic factors to explain trade preferences, and analyze support for three recent CTAs: the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement with Canada (CETA), and the EU-Korea Free Trade Agreement. Using an original dataset on trade voting and a multilevel model, I show that higher levels of citizens’ trust in government make Members of the European Parliament more likely to vote in favor of CTAs. My research offers a novel theoretical argument and insights on the connection between public trust and elite position-taking.
Does the regime type of a foreign intervener influence the duration of civil wars? Existing research has shown that third-party support affects the outcome of a conflict. Moreover, studies show that the type of support offered to conflict actors can determine how a war ends. While this research has offered significant implications on conflict dynamics, extant works have overlooked the importance of characteristics of foreign supporters and how their attributes can impact conflict outcomes. Focusing on foreign troop support and quantities, this article examines the relationship between the regime type of a foreign supporter and the outcome of an armed conflict. We argue that regime type of an external troop sponsor can influence war duration based on two dynamics: selection effects and signaling effects. Specifically, troop assistance provided to warring parties by democracies decreases the length of civil wars and increases the likelihood for a one-sided victory for the supported faction. The empirical findings for all intrastate conflicts during the period 1975–2012 provide evidence for our claims that the regime type of an external intervener influences the outcome of a conflict.
What is the role of economic interdependence with foreign powers when legislators vote on foreign policies? Foreign aid and trade are among the European Union’s most important foreign policy instruments, over which the European Parliament has veto power. Yet, few studies address foreign economic policy voting in European Parliament scholarship. This study presents a new theoretical model about economic interdependence and foreign policy positioning in the European Parliament. I argue that economic interdependence with major foreign powers is associated with legislators’ foreign policy positions. Analysing European Parliament votes concerning aid and trade with Ukraine, I show a statistical association between Members of the European Parliaments with high levels of Russian Foreign Direct Investment in their electoral districts and voting against aid and trade with Ukraine (supporting the pro-Russian policy). These findings offer new insights on Members of the European Parliaments’ position-taking in foreign economic policy decisions that have global economic and political ramifications.
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