This paper estimates the effect of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach, I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of NPIs becomes visible with a time lag of around five weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery.
Although several targeted welfare programs across the world have made owner-occupied housing exempt from the means test, relatively little is known about the impact of such exemption on portfolio choice and consumption. We study the Australian age pension scheme and argue that current uncapped exemption may lead to distortionary incentives for high levels of housing wealth to be sheltered from the means test. We set up a life-cycle model with explicit housing choice and borrowing constraints to match some key features of the Australian economy. We find that abolishing the exemption of owner-occupied housing in the assets test increases aggregate output, capital accumulation, and welfare, but decreases housing investment and homeownership. However, removing such distortions does not necessarily imply that all households would be better off. Lowering taxes to maintain fiscal balance would result in wealthy households experiencing a large welfare loss, whereas the majority of the population would benefit.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.