Aim: Higher-elevation areas on islands and continental mountains tend to be separated by longer distances, predicting higher endemism at higher elevations; our study is the first to test the generality of the predicted pattern. We also compare it empirically with contrasting expectations from hypotheses invoking higher speciation with area, temperature and species richness. Location: 32 insular and 18 continental elevational gradients from around the world. Methods: We compiled entire floras with elevation-specific occurrence information, and calculated the proportion of native species that are endemic ('percent endemism') in 100 m bands, for each of the 50 elevational gradients. Using generalized linear models, we tested the relationships between percent endemism and elevation, isolation, temperature, area and species richness. Results: Percent endemism consistently increased monotonically with elevation, globally. This was independent of richness-elevation relationships, which had varying shapes but decreased with elevation at high elevations. The endemism-elevation relationships were consistent with isolationrelated predictions, but inconsistent with hypotheses related to area, richness and temperature. Main conclusions: Higher per-species speciation rates caused by increasing isolation with elevation are the most plausible and parsimonious explanation for the globally consistent pattern of higher endemism at higher elevations that we identify. We suggest that topography-driven isolation increases speciation rates in mountainous areas, across all elevations, and increasingly towards the equator. If so, it represents a mechanism that may contribute to generating latitudinal diversity gradients in a way that is consistent with both present-day and palaeontological evidence.

Summary1. Priority question exercises are becoming an increasingly common tool to frame future agendas in conservation and ecological science. They are an effective way to identify research foci that advance the field and that also have high policy and conservation relevance. 2. To date, there has been no coherent synthesis of key questions and priority research areas for palaeoecology, which combines biological, geochemical and molecular techniques in order to reconstruct past ecological and environmental systems on time-scales from decades to millions of years. 3. We adapted a well-established methodology to identify 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology. Using a set of criteria designed to identify realistic and achievable research goals, we selected questions from a pool submitted by the international palaeoecology research community and relevant policy practitioners. 4. The integration of online participation, both before and during the workshop, increased international engagement in question selection. 5. The questions selected are structured around six themes: human-environment interactions in the Anthropocene; biodiversity, conservation and novel ecosystems; biodiversity over long time-scales; ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycling; comparing, combining and synthesizing information from multiple records; and new developments in palaeoecology. 6. Future opportunities in palaeoecology are related to improved incorporation of uncertainty into reconstructions, an enhanced understanding of ecological and evolutionary dynamics and processes and the continued application of long-term data for better-informed landscape management. 256-26750 priority research questions in palaeoecology 257 7. Synthesis. Palaeoecology is a vibrant and thriving discipline, and these 50 priority questions highlight its potential for addressing both pure (e.g. ecological and evolutionary, methodological) and applied (e.g. environmental and conservation) issues related to ecological science and global change.

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.

Islands are among the last regions on Earth settled and transformed by human activities, and they provide replicated model systems for analysis of how people affect ecological functions. By analyzing 27 representative fossil pollen sequences encompassing the past 5000 years from islands globally, we quantified the rates of vegetation compositional change before and after human arrival. After human arrival, rates of turnover accelerate by a median factor of 11, with faster rates on islands colonized in the past 1500 years than for those colonized earlier. This global anthropogenic acceleration in turnover suggests that islands are on trajectories of continuing change. Strategies for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration must acknowledge the long duration of human impacts and the degree to which ecological changes today differ from prehuman dynamics.

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Summary1. Garajonay National Park in La Gomera (Canary Islands) contains one of the largest remnant areas of a forest formation once widespread throughout Europe and North Africa. Here, we aim to address the long-term dynamics (the last 9600 cal. years) of the monteverde forest (laurel forest and Morella-Erica heath) located close to the summit of the National Park (1487 m a.s.l.) and determine past environmental and human impacts. 2. We used palaeoecological (fossil pollen, microscopic and macroscopic charcoal) and multivariate ecological techniques to identify compositional change in the monteverde forest in relation to potential climatic and human influences, based on the analysis of a core site at 1250-m elevation. 3. The regional mid-Holocene change towards drier conditions was matched in this system by a fairly rapid shift in representation of key forest elements, with declines in Canarian palm tree (Phoenix canariensis), Canarian willow (Salix canariensis) and certain laurel forest taxa and an increase in representation of the Morella-Erica woody heath. 4. Charcoal data suggest that humans arrived on the island between about 3000 and 1800 years ago, a period of minimal vegetation change. Levels of burning over the last 800 years are among the lowest of the entire 9600 years. 5. Synthesis. A rapid climatic-induced shift of forest taxa occurred 5500 years ago, with a decrease in hygrophilous species in the pollen record. In contrast, we found no evidence of a significant response to human colonization. These findings support the idea that Garajonay National Park is protecting a truly ancient relict, comprising a largely natural rather than cultural legacy.

The discovery and colonization of islands by humans has invariably resulted in their widespread ecological transformation. The small and isolated populations of many island taxa, and their evolution in the absence of humans and their introduced taxa, mean that they are particularly vulnerable to human activities. Consequently, even the most degraded islands are a focus for restoration, eradication, and monitoring programmes to protect the remaining endemic and/or relict populations. Here, we build a framework that incorporates an assessment of the degree of change from multiple baseline reference periods using long-term ecological data. The use of multiple reference points may provide information on both the variability of natural systems and responses to successive waves of cultural transformation of island ecosystems, involving, for example, the alteration of fire and grazing regimes and the introduction of non-native species. We provide exemplification of how such approaches can provide valuable information for biodiversity conservation managers of island ecosystems.

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