Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.

Deterioration of reproductive traits with age is observed in an increasing number of species. Although such deterioration is often attributed to reproductive senescence, a within-individual decline in reproductive success with age, few studies on wild animals have focused on direct fitness measures while accounting for selective disappearance and terminal effects, and to our knowledge none have determined how senescence effects arise from underlying reproductive traits. We show for female great tits that such an approach helps understanding of the onset, impact and architecture of senescence. Cross-sectional analysis of 49 years of breeding data shows annual recruit production to decline from 3.5 years of age, this decline affecting 9 per cent of females each year. Longitudinal analyses, however, show that selective disappearance of poor-quality breeders partly masks senescence, which in fact starts at 2.8 years and affects 21 per cent of females each year. There is no evidence for abrupt terminal effects. Analyses of underlying traits show no deterioration in clutch size, but significant declines in brood size and fledgling number. Furthermore, these traits contribute K9, 12 and 39 per cent to the senescent decline in recruit production, respectively. Besides providing detailed knowledge of the patterns and architecture of senescence in a natural population, these results illustrate the importance of modelling individual variation, and facilitate study of the underlying mechanisms of senescence.

Summary1. Temperament traits increasingly provide a focus for investigating the evolutionary ecology of behavioural variation. Here, we examine the underlying causes and selective consequences of individual variation in the temperament trait 'exploration behaviour in a novel environment' (EB, based on an 8-min assay) in a free-ranging population of a passerine bird, the great tit Parus major. 2. First, we conducted a quantitative genetic analysis on EB using a restricted maximum likelihood-based animal model with a long-term pedigree. Although repeatability was relatively high, EB was only moderately heritable and permanent environment (V PE ) effects contributed as much to phenotypic variance as additive genetic effects. 3. We then asked whether heterogeneous selection acted on EB at various temporal and spatial scales. Using estimates of lifetime reproductive success, we found evidence of weak negative directional selection acting on EB amongst females which was driven by selection through recruitment, but not fecundity, in one of the four breeding years. There was no evidence of any selection on EB through survival. 4. Heterogeneous selection on EB within seasons was also observed amongst males through fecundity along two fine-scale environmental gradients -local breeding density and habitat quality; we are unaware of any previous equivalent demonstrations. 5. All of these analyses were repeated on a second measure of exploration behaviour (EB 2 , measured during a 2-min assay) to facilitate comparison with other studies. EB and EB 2 were strongly correlated to one another at the genetic level, but were only moderately correlated at the phenotypic level and V PE was undetected in EB 2 . Selection on EB 2 was similar to that on EB; we conclude that both traits are broadly equivalent from an evolutionary perspective. 6. Our analyses suggest that to the extent that the temperament trait 'exploration behaviour' is subject to natural selection in this population, this selection is highly context dependent and most evident along two environmental gradients. Furthermore, the strong V PE effect detected suggests that understanding the causes and consequences of variation in this trait will require studies firmly embedded in an environmental context.

Parameterisation of a mechanistic population model with data from a 51-year study on great tits suggests that phenotypic plasticity is crucial for viability of bird populations under current climate change scenarios.

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The conditions under which individuals are reared vary and sensitivity of offspring to such variation is often sex-dependent. Parental age is one important natal condition with consequences for aspects of offspring fitness, but reports are mostly limited to short-term fitness consequences and do not take into account offspring sex. Here we used individual-based data from a large colony of a long-lived seabird, the common tern Sterna hirundo, to investigate longitudinal long-term fitness consequences of parental age in relation to both offspring and parental sex. We found that recruited daughters from older mothers suffered from reduced annual reproductive success. Recruited sons from older fathers were found to suffer from reduced life span. Both effects translated to reductions in offspring lifetime reproductive success. Besides revealing novel sex-specific pathways of transgenerational parental age effects on offspring fitness, which inspire studies of potential underlying mechanisms, our analyses show that reproductive senescence is only observed in the common tern when including transgenerational age effects. In general, our study shows that estimates of selective pressures underlying the evolution of senescence, as well as processes such as age-dependent mate choice and sex allocation, will depend on whether causal transgenerational effects exist and are taken into account.

Ageing, long thought to be too infrequent to study effectively in natural populations, has recently been shown to be ubiquitous, even in the wild. A major challenge now is to explain variation in the rates of ageing within populations. Here, using 49 years of data from a population of great tits (Parus major), we show that offspring life‐history trajectories vary with maternal age. Offspring hatched from older mothers perform better early in life, but suffer from an earlier onset, and stronger rate, of reproductive senescence later in life. Offspring reproductive lifespan is, however, unaffected by maternal age, and the different life‐history trajectories result in a similar fitness payoff, measured as lifetime reproductive success. This study therefore identifies maternal age as a new factor underlying variation in rates of ageing, and, given the delayed trans‐generational nature of this effect, poses the question as to proximate mechanisms linking age‐effects across generations.

Summary1. Longitudinal studies of various vertebrate populations have recently demonstrated senescent declines in reproductive performance and ⁄ or survival probability with age to be almost ubiquitous in nature. Little is known, however, about the extent to which rates of senescence vary between individuals, and about causes or consequences of such variation. Quantifying these links in natural populations is important for understanding the constraints and adaptive processes underlying the evolution of senescence. 2. Here, we analyse breeding data from 1029 female great tits Parus major to quantify the effect of natal conditions and early life reproduction on rates of reproductive senescence, reproductive life span and lifetime reproductive success. 3. Although for locally born females we find no evidence that natal conditions influence rates of reproductive senescence, we show that immigrant females suffer from faster rates of senescence than locally born females, and that this difference contributes to immigrants having a lower lifetime reproductive success. 4. Additionally, and independently, we find rates of reproductive senescence to increase with rates of early life reproduction, as predicted by the disposable soma hypothesis. Despite accelerated senescence late in life, high early life reproduction is, however, positively associated with lifetime reproductive success across individuals. 5. Female immigrant status and early life reproduction do not relate to reproductive life span. 6. We thus show that both immigration into our population, and high levels of early life reproduction, are associated with reduced late life reproductive performance in female great tits, but that fitness can be increased by high levels of early life reproduction at the expense of accelerated reproductive senescence. These results suggest disposable soma to be a likely mechanism underlying senescence in these birds, and encourage further study of the genetic basis (i.e. antagonistic pleiotropy) of such an early vs. late life trade-off.