This paper examines the causal link that runs from classroom quality to student achievement using data on twin pairs who entered the same school but were allocated to different classrooms in an exogenous way. In particular, we apply twin fixed-effects estimation to assess the effect of teacher quality on student test scores from second through eighth grade of primary education, arguing that a change in teacher quality is probably the most important classroom intervention within a twin context. In a series of estimations using measurable teacher characteristics, we find that (a) the test performance of all students improves with teacher experience; (b) teacher experience also matters for student performance after the initial years in the profession; (c) the teacher experience effect is most prominent in earlier grades; (d) the teacher experience effects are robust to the inclusion of other classroom quality measures, such as peer group composition and class size; and (e) an increase in teacher experience also matters for career stages with less labor market mobility, which suggests positive returns to on-the-job learning of teachers.1 Rothstein (2010) evaluates the most common value-added specifications used for the assessment of teacher performance. He finds that the assumptions underlying common value-added specifications are substantially incorrect and the estimates of teacher effects based on these models cannot be interpreted as causal. See also Guarino et al. (2014) and Goldhaber and Chaplin (2015) on the validity of value-added measures of teacher performance.

We extract estimation results on the Mincer earnings function from four earlier studies and add new results from a recent dataset. We check for differences related to differences in earnings concepts and in sampling frame, to reduce bias in intertemporal comparison. Jointly, the studies show a clear U-shaped development in the rate of return to education from 1962 to 2012, with a bottom in the 1980s. We explain this from Tinbergens's race between suppy and demand (schooling and technology) and suggest this may be a widespread international pattern. Returns to potential experience show no marked time trend. The paper has been presented at the CPB-OCW Workshop "Returns to education: research and policy", The Hague, December 17 2015. We are grateful to Bas ter Weel and Harry Patrinos for comments on an earlier version and to Wiljan van den Berge and Dinand Webbink for providing us with their data. We also thank two anonymous referees for useful suggestions. Keywords The Mincer EquationIn the four decades since Jacob Mincer introduced his earnings function, as an implication of the theory of human capital, it has become a standard tool for analysing earnings B Joop Hartog

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This paper investigates the empirical validity of the setup of a large-scale government neighbourhood investment programme in the Netherlands. Selection of neighbourhoods into the programme was determined by a measure of neighbourhood quality. At first sight this is a textbook example for the application of a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of the programme on neighbourhood outcomes. Neighbourhoods close to the threshold should be similar before the programme starts. However, at the discontinuity threshold we observe a surprisingly large gap in the share of non-Western immigrants between neighbourhoods that were selected into the programme and neighbourhoods that were not. In addition, there is non-compliance with the assignment rule based on the quality index. The pattern We thank two referees of this journal, Josh Angrist, Casper van Ewijk, Erzo Luttmer, Justin McCrary, Coen Teulings and participants at several seminars for helpful comments and discussions. We also benefited useful discussions about the neighbourhood programme with representatives from the Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations and the Dutch Ministry of Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports. Special thanks to Gerard Verweij for constructing the graphs in this paper. We would like to thank Joost Smits for access to the election data. of non-compliance is consistent with investing in neighbourhoods with a high share of non-Western immigrants. Finally, the way in which neighbourhoods were defined could be a likely explanation for the imbalance in the share of non-Western immigrants at the discontinuity threshold.

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