A large number of different common variants has been associated with very modest increases of risk for various common diseases. A simulation study shows that rare variants with much greater impacts on disease risk may be responsible for some of these associations.
GWAS have been successful in identifying disease susceptibility loci, but it remains a challenge to pinpoint the causal variants in subsequent fine-mapping studies. A conventional fine-mapping effort starts by sequencing dozens of randomly selected samples at susceptibility loci to discover candidate variants, which are then placed on custom arrays or used in imputation algorithms to find the causal variants. We propose that one or several rare or low-frequency causal variants can hitchhike the same common tag SNP, so causal variants may not be easily unveiled by conventional efforts. Here, we first demonstrate that the true effect size and proportion of variance explained by a collection of rare causal variants can be underestimated by a common tag SNP, thereby accounting for some of the "missing heritability" in GWAS. We then describe a case-selection approach based on phasing long-range haplotypes and sequencing cases predicted to harbor causal variants. We compare this approach with conventional strategies on a simulated data set, and we demonstrate its advantages when multiple causal variants are present. We also evaluate this approach in a GWAS on hearing loss, where the most common causal variant has a minor allele frequency (MAF) of 1.3% in the general population and 8.2% in 329 cases. With our case-selection approach, it is present in 88% of the 32 selected cases (MAF = 66%), so sequencing a subset of these cases can readily reveal the causal allele. Our results suggest that thinking beyond common variants is essential in interpreting GWAS signals and identifying causal variants.
We present the analysis of twenty human genomes to evaluate the prospects for identifying rare functional variants that contribute to a phenotype of interest. We sequenced at high coverage ten “case” genomes from individuals with severe hemophilia A and ten “control” genomes. We summarize the number of genetic variants emerging from a study of this magnitude, and provide a proof of concept for the identification of rare and highly-penetrant functional variants by confirming that the cause of hemophilia A is easily recognizable in this data set. We also show that the number of novel single nucleotide variants (SNVs) discovered per genome seems to stabilize at about 144,000 new variants per genome, after the first 15 individuals have been sequenced. Finally, we find that, on average, each genome carries 165 homozygous protein-truncating or stop loss variants in genes representing a diverse set of pathways.
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