BACKGROUNDUniversal antiretroviral therapy (ART) with annual population testing and a multidisease, patient-centered strategy could reduce new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and improve community health. METHODSWe randomly assigned 32 rural communities in Uganda and Kenya to baseline HIV and multidisease testing and national guideline-restricted ART (control group) or to baseline testing plus annual testing, eligibility for universal ART, and patient-centered care (intervention group). The primary end point was the cumulative incidence of HIV infection at 3 years. Secondary end points included viral suppression, death, tuberculosis, hypertension control, and the change in the annual incidence of HIV infection (which was evaluated in the intervention group only). RESULTSA total of 150,395 persons were included in the analyses. Population-level viral suppression among 15,399 HIV-infected persons was 42% at baseline and was higher in the intervention group than in the control group at 3 years (79% vs. 68%; relative prevalence, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.20). The annual incidence of HIV infection in the intervention group decreased by 32% over 3 years (from 0.43 to 0.31 cases per 100 personyears; relative rate, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.84). However, the 3-year cumulative incidence (704 incident HIV infections) did not differ significantly between the intervention group and the control group (0.77% and 0.81%, respectively; relative risk, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.17). Among HIV-infected persons, the risk of death by year 3 was 3% in the intervention group and 4% in the control group (0.99 vs. 1.29 deaths per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.93). The risk of HIV-associated tuberculosis or death by year 3 among HIV-infected persons was 4% in the intervention group and 5% in the control group (1.19 vs. 1.50 events per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.94). At 3 years, 47% of adults with hypertension in the intervention group and 37% in the control group had hypertension control (relative prevalence, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.39). CONCLUSIONSUniversal HIV treatment did not result in a significantly lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care, probably owing to the availability of comprehensive baseline HIV testing and the rapid expansion of ART eligibility in the control group. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; SEARCH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01864603.

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) may be common among individuals living in sub-Saharan Africa due to the confluence of CKD risk factors and genetic predisposition. Methods We ascertained the prevalence of CKD and its risk factors among a sample of 3,686 participants of a population-based HIV trial in rural Uganda and Kenya. Prevalent CKD was defined as a serum creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73m 2 or proteinuria (urine dipstick �1+). We used inverse-weighting to estimate the population prevalence of CKD, and multivariable log-link Poisson models to assess the associations of potential risk factors with CKD. Results The estimated CKD prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI 5.7-8.1%) overall and varied by region, being 12.5% (10.1-15.4%) in eastern Uganda, 3.9% (2.2-6.8%) in southwestern Uganda and 3.7% (2.7-5.1%) in western Kenya. Risk factors associated with greater CKD prevalence included age �60 years (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 3.5 [95% CI 1.9-6.5] compared with age 18-29 years), HIV infection (aPR 1.6 [1.1-2.2]), and residence in eastern Uganda (aPR 3.9 [2.6-5.9]). However, two-thirds of individuals with CKD did not have HIV, diabetes, or hypertension as risk factors. Furthermore, we noted many individuals who did not have proteinuria had dipstick positive leukocyturia or hematuria.

Background Expanding outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) across Africa after the global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 2016 are delaying global polio eradication. We aimed to assess the effect of outbreak response campaigns with monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2) and the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunisation. MethodsWe used vaccination history data from children under 5 years old with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis from a routine surveillance database (the Polio Information System) and setting-specific OPV immunogenicity data from the literature to estimate OPV-induced and IPV-induced population immunity against type 2 poliomyelitis between Jan 1, 2015, and June 30, 2020, for 51 countries in Africa. We investigated risk factors for reported cVDPV2 poliomyelitis including population immunity, outbreak response activities, and correlates of poliovirus transmission using logistic regression. We used the model to estimate cVDPV2 risk for each 6-month period between Jan 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020, with different numbers of mOPV2 campaigns and compared the timing and location of actual mOPV2 campaigns and the number of mOPV2 campaigns required to reduce cVDPV2 risk to low levels. FindingsType 2 OPV immunity among children under 5 years declined from a median of 87% (IQR 81-93) in January-June, 2016 to 14% (9-37) in January-June, 2020. Type 2 immunity from IPV among children under 5 years increased from 3% (<1-6%) in January-June, 2016 to 35% (24-47) in January-June, 2020. The probability of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis among children under 5 years was negatively correlated with OPV-induced and IPV-induced immunity and mOPV2 campaigns (adjusted odds ratio: OPV 0•68 [95% CrI 0•60−0•76], IPV 0•82 [0•68−0•99] per 10% absolute increase in estimated population immunity, mOPV2 0•30 [0•20−0•44] per campaign). Vaccination campaigns in response to cVDPV2 outbreaks have been smaller and slower than our model shows would be necessary to reduce risk to low levels, covering only 11% of children under 5 years who are predicted to be at risk within 6 months and only 56% within 12 months.Interpretation Our findings suggest that as mucosal immunity declines, larger or faster responses with vaccination campaigns using type 2-containing OPV will be required to stop cVDPV2 transmission. IPV-induced immunity also has an important role in reducing the burden of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis in Africa.

Background Although the Horn of Africa region has successfully eliminated endemic poliovirus circulation, it remains at risk for reintroduction. International partners assisted Kenya in identifying gaps in the polio surveillance and routine immunization programs, and provided recommendations for improved surveillance and routine immunization during the health system decentralization process. Methods Structured questionnaires collected information about acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance resources, training, data monitoring, and supervision at provincial, district, and health facility levels. The routine immunization program information collected included questions about vaccine and resource availability, cold chain, logistics, health-care services and access, outreach coverage data, microplanning, and management and monitoring of AFP surveillance. Results Although AFP surveillance met national performance standards, widespread deficiencies and limited resources were observed and reported at all levels. Deficiencies were related to provider knowledge, funding, training, and supervision, and were particularly evident at the health facility level. Conclusions Gap analysis assists in maximizing resources and capacity building in countries where surveillance and routine immunization lag behind other health priorities. Limited resources for surveillance and routine immunization systems in the region indicate a risk for additional outbreaks of wild poliovirus and other vaccine-preventable illnesses. Monitoring and evaluation of program strengthening activities are needed.

Background World Health Organization African region is wild poliovirus-free; however, outbreaks of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) continue to expand across the continent including in Chad. We conducted a serological survey of polio antibodies in polio high-risk areas of Chad to assess population immunity against poliovirus and estimate the risk of future outbreaks. Methods This was a community-based, cross-sectional survey carried out in September 2019. Children between 12 and 59 months were randomly selected using GIS enumeration of structures. Informed consent, demographic and anthropometric data, vaccination history, and blood spots were collected. Seropositivity against all 3 poliovirus serotypes was assessed using a microneutralization assay at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. Results Analyzable data were obtained from 236 out of 285 (82.8%) enrolled children. Seroprevalence of polio antibodies for serotypes 1, 2, and 3 was 214/236 (90.7%); 145/236 (61.4%); and 196/236 (86.2%), respectively. For serotype 2, the seroprevalence significantly increased with age (P = .004); chronic malnutrition was a significant risk factor for being type 2-seronegative. Interpretation Poliovirus type 2 seroprevalence in young children was considered insufficient to protect against the spread of paralytic diseases caused by VDPV2. Indeed, VDPV2 outbreaks were reported from Chad in 2019 and 2020. High-quality immunization response to these outbreaks is needed to prevent further spread.