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Feeding the world's growing population is a serious challenge. Food insecurity is concentrated in developing nations, where drought and low soil fertility are primary constraints to food production. Many crops in developing countries are supported by weathered soils in which nutrient deficiencies and ion toxicities are common. Many systems have declining soil fertility due to inadequate use of fertility inputs, ongoing soil degradation, and increasingly intense resource use by burgeoning populations. Climate models predict that warmer temperatures and increases in the frequency and duration of drought during the 21st century will have net negative effects on agricultural productivity. The potential effects of climate change on soil fertility and the ability of crops to acquire and utilize soil nutrients is poorly understood, but is essential for understanding the future of global agriculture. This paper explores how rising temperature, drought and more intense precipitation events projected in climate change scenarios for the 21st century might affect soil fertility and the mineral nutrition of crops in developing countries. The effects of climate change on erosion rates, soil organic carbon losses, soil moisture, root growth and function, rootmicrobe associations and plant phenology as they relate to mineral nutrition are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the negative impacts of climate change on soil fertility and mineral nutrition of crops will far exceed beneficial effects, which would intensify food insecurity, particularly in developing countries.

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) influences forest demographics and carbon (C) uptake through multiple mechanisms that vary among tree species. Prior studies have estimated the effects of atmospheric N deposition on temperate forests by leveraging forest inventory measurements across regional gradients in deposition. However, in the United States (U.S.), these previous studies were limited in the number of species and the spatial scale of analysis, and did not include sulfur (S) deposition as a potential covariate. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of how tree growth and survival for 71 species vary with N and S deposition across the conterminous U.S. Our analysis of 1,423,455 trees from forest plots inventoried between 2000 and 2016 reveals that the growth and/or survival of the vast majority of species in the analysis (n = 66, or 93%) were significantly affected by atmospheric deposition. Species co-occurred across the conterminous U.S. that had decreasing and increasing relationships between growth (or survival) and N deposition, with just over half of species responding negatively in either growth or survival to increased N deposition somewhere in their range (42 out of 71). Averaged across species and conterminous U.S., however, we found that an increase in deposition above current rates of N deposition would coincide with a small net increase in tree growth (1.7% per Δ kg N ha-1 yr-1), and a small net decrease in tree survival (-0.22% per Δ kg N ha-1 yr-1), with substantial regional and among-species variation. Adding S as a predictor improved the overall model performance for 70% of the species in the analysis. Our findings have potential to help inform ecosystem management and air pollution policy across the conterminous U.S., and suggest that N and S deposition have likely altered forest demographics in the U.S.

Biotic resistance and disturbance are fundamental processes influencing plant invasion outcomes; however, the role of consumers in regulating the establishment and spread of plant invaders and how disturbance modifies biotic resistance by consumers is unclear. We document that fire in combination with experimental exclusion of rodent consumers shifted a native desert shrubland to a low-diversity, invasive annual grassland dominated by Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass). In contrast, burned plots with rodents present suppressed invasion by cheatgrass and developed into a more diverse forb community. Rodents created strong biotic resistance to the establishment of aggressive plant invaders likely through seed and seedling predation, which had cascading effects on plant competition and plant community diversity. Fire mediated its positive effects on plant invaders through native plant removal and by decreasing the abundance and diversity of the rodent community. The experimental disruption of plant and consumer-mediated biotic resistance of plant invaders using fire and rodent exclusion treatments provides strong evidence that native plants and rodents are important regulators of plant invasion dynamics and plant biodiversity in our study system. While rodents conferred strong resistance to invasion in our study system, fluctuations in rodent populations due to disturbance and climatic events may provide windows of opportunity for exotic plant species to escape biotic resistance by rodent consumers and initiate invasions.