One year into the global COVID-19 pandemic, the focus of attention has shifted to the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). After nearly a year of the pandemic with little evolutionary change affecting human health, several variants have now been shown to have substantial detrimental effects on transmission and severity of the virus. Public health officials, medical practitioners, scientists, and the broader community have since been scrambling to understand what these variants mean for diagnosis, treatment, and the control of the pandemic through nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccines. Here we explore the evolutionary processes that are involved in the emergence of new variants, what we can expect in terms of the future emergence of VOCs, and what we can do to minimise their impact.

The geographic ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing due to global and local environmental (including climatic) changes. In this review we explore current knowledge of the drivers for changes in the ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogen species and strains via effects on their basic reproduction number (R0), and the mechanisms of dispersal that allow ticks and tick-borne pathogens to invade suitable environments. Using the expanding geographic distribution of the vectors and agent of Lyme disease as an example we then investigate what could be expected of the diversity of tick-borne pathogens during the process of range expansion, and compare this with what is currently being observed. Lastly we explore how historic population and range expansions and contractions could be reflected in the phylogeography of ticks and tick-borne pathogens seen in recent years, and conclude that combined study of currently changing tick and tick-borne pathogen ranges and diversity, with phylogeographic analysis, may help us better predict future patterns of invasion and diversity.

Different genotypes of the agent of Lyme disease in North America, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, show varying degrees of pathogenicity in humans. This variation in pathogenicity correlates with phylogeny and we have hypothesized that the different phylogenetic lineages in North America reflect adaptation to different host species. In this study, evidence for host species associations of B. burgdorferi genotypes was investigated using 41 B. burgdorferi-positive samples from five mammal species and 50 samples from host-seeking ticks collected during the course of field studies in four regions of Canada: Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. The B. burgdorferi genotypes in the samples were characterized using three established molecular markers (multi-locus sequence typing [MLST], 16S-23S rrs-rrlA intergenic spacer, and outer surface protein C sequence [ospC] major groups). Correspondence analysis and generalized linear mixed effect models revealed significant associations between B. burgdorferi genotypes and host species (in particular chipmunks, and white-footed mice and deer mice), supporting the hypotheses that host adaptation contributes to the phylogenetic structure and possibly the observed variation in pathogenicity in humans.

Lyme disease is emerging in southern Canada due to range expansion of the tick vector, followed by invasion of the agent of Lyme disease Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. Strain diversity, as determined by Multi Locus Sequence Typing, occurs in this zone of emergence, and this may have its origins in adaptation to ecological niches, and have phenotypic consequences for pathogenicity and serological test performance. Sixty-four unique strains were cultured from ticks collected in southern Canada and the genomes sequenced using the Illumina MiSeq platform. A maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree of the chromosome revealed two large clades with multiple subclades. Consistent with previous studies on this species, the clades were not geographically defined, and some Canadian strains were highly divergent from previously sequenced US strains. There was evidence for recombination in the chromosome but this did not affect the phylogeny. Analysis of chromosomal genes indicated that these are under intense purifying selection. Phylogenies of the accessory genome and chromosome were congruent. Therefore strain differences identified in the phylogeny of chromosomal genes likely act as a proxy for genetic determinants of phenotypic differences amongst strains that are harboured in the accessory genome. Further studies on health implications of strain diversity are needed.

g Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, is an emerging zoonotic disease in Canada and is vectored by the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis. Here we used Bayesian analyses of sequence types (STs), determined by multilocus sequence typing (MLST), to investigate the phylogeography of B. burgdorferi populations in southern Canada and the United States by analyzing MLST data from 564 B. burgdorferi-positive samples collected during surveillance. A total of 107 Canadian samples from field sites were characterized as part of this study, and these data were combined with existing MLST data for samples from the United States and Canada. Only 17% of STs were common between both countries, while 49% occurred only in the United States, and 34% occurred only in Canada. However, STs in southeastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec were typically identical to those in the northeastern United States, suggesting a recent introduction into this region from the United States. In contrast, STs in other locations in Canada (the Maritimes; Long Point, Ontario; and southeastern Manitoba) were frequently unique to those locations but were putative descendants of STs previously found in the United States. The picture in Canada is consistent with relatively recent introductions from multiple refugial populations in the United States. These data thus point to a geographic pattern of populations of B. burgdorferi in North America that may be more complex than simply comprising northeastern, midwestern, and Californian groups. We speculate that this reflects the complex ecology and spatial distribution of key reservoir hosts.