The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be significantly larger than anything seen since the financial crisis of 2008/09. The spread of COVID-19 has already had a high human cost, and, with public health systems struggling to cope, these costs will continue to grow. The policies put in place by governments to slow the transmission of COVID-19 have led, in many countries, to a massive demand and supply shock. This has led to significant trade disruptions, drops in commodity prices, and the tightening of financial conditions in many countries. These effects have already led to large increases in unemployment and underemployment rates and will continue to threaten the survival of many firms worldwide (Loayza and Pennings, 2020).The pandemic will create significant fiscal policy challenges. While macroeconomic policy includes other dimensions, this brief focuses on fiscal policy, which will have the largest and most immediate effects on education financing. Government revenues are projected to fall as a consequence of the pandemic because of declining economic activity. As fiscal space is already limited in many countries, there is a danger that policy responses to the crisis will either be insufficient or will worsen macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, the overwhelming need to give priority to responding to the public health emergency and to strengthening safety nets is likely to reduce the amount of funding that is available for other public investments, including education.There is considerable uncertainty about the likely overall economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its duration and severity will depend on the success of measures to stop the spread of the virus and how quickly economic activity can resume, trade can recover, and financial markets and commodity prices can be stabilized. It is clear that the immediate effect will be a slowdown or reversal of economic growth and poverty reduction. However, the longer-term outlook is uncertain.
SummaryThis paper uses multivariate regression techniques to analyse household survey data collected in rural Tanzania in 1992 in a joint research project by TADREG (Tanzania Development Research Group) and the University of Dar es Salaam. It focuses on how information collected on household and individual characteristics affect whether or not a child goes to primary school, completes primary and attends secondary. The regression analysis clearly shows substantial intra household differences between the way in which household characteristics affect outcomes for boys and girls, and how mothers' and fathers' influence over resource decisions differently affect outcomes. For example, when looking at the decision as to whether to enrol in primary school, fathers' education has a greater influence on boys whereas mothers' primary education has a greater influence on girls. Furthermore, married mothers' education can increase the probability of girls enrolling in secondary school by 9.7 per cent for primary education and a further 17.6 per cent for secondary, while having no significant effect on the enrolment of boys. These results imply that mothers have a relatively stronger preference for their daughters' education and that their education affords them either increased household decision-making power or increased economic status.
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