Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0•685 (95% CI 0•629-0•741) to 0•833 (0•783-0•882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.

Glycemic traits are used to diagnose and monitor type 2 diabetes, and cardiometabolic health. To date, most genetic studies of glycemic traits have focused on individuals of European ancestry. Here, we aggregated genome-wide association studies in up to 281,416 individuals without diabetes (30% non-European ancestry) with fasting glucose, 2h-glucose post-challenge, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting insulin data. Trans-ancestry and single-ancestry meta-analyses identified 242 loci (99 novel; P <5x10 -8 ), 80% with no significant evidence of between-ancestry heterogeneity. Analyses restricted to European ancestry individuals with equivalent sample size would have led to 24 fewer new loci. Compared to single-ancestry, equivalent sized trans-ancestry fine-mapping reduced the number of estimated variants in 99% credible sets by a median of 37.5%. Genomic feature, gene-expression and gene-set analyses revealed distinct biological signatures for each trait, highlighting different underlying biological pathways. Our results increase understanding of diabetes pathophysiology by use of trans-ancestry studies for improved power and resolution.

BackgroundNew fitness trackers and smartwatches are released to the consumer market every year. These devices are equipped with different sensors, algorithms, and accompanying mobile apps. With recent advances in mobile sensor technology, privately collected physical activity data can be used as an addition to existing methods for health data collection in research. Furthermore, data collected from these devices have possible applications in patient diagnostics and treatment. With an increasing number of diverse brands, there is a need for an overview of device sensor support, as well as device applicability in research projects.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to examine the availability of wrist-worn fitness wearables and analyze availability of relevant fitness sensors from 2011 to 2017. Furthermore, the study was designed to assess brand usage in research projects, compare common brands in terms of developer access to collected health data, and features to consider when deciding which brand to use in future research.MethodsWe searched for devices and brand names in six wearable device databases. For each brand, we identified additional devices on official brand websites. The search was limited to wrist-worn fitness wearables with accelerometers, for which we mapped brand, release year, and supported sensors relevant for fitness tracking. In addition, we conducted a Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE) and ClinicalTrials search to determine brand usage in research projects. Finally, we investigated developer accessibility to the health data collected by identified brands.ResultsWe identified 423 unique devices from 132 different brands. Forty-seven percent of brands released only one device. Introduction of new brands peaked in 2014, and the highest number of new devices was introduced in 2015. Sensor support increased every year, and in addition to the accelerometer, a photoplethysmograph, for estimating heart rate, was the most common sensor. Out of the brands currently available, the five most often used in research projects are Fitbit, Garmin, Misfit, Apple, and Polar. Fitbit is used in twice as many validation studies as any other brands and is registered in ClinicalTrials studies 10 times as often as other brands.ConclusionsThe wearable landscape is in constant change. New devices and brands are released every year, promising improved measurements and user experience. At the same time, other brands disappear from the consumer market for various reasons. Advances in device quality offer new opportunities for research. However, only a few well-established brands are frequently used in research projects, and even less are thoroughly validated.

To compare the effects of highly purified ethyl ester concentrates of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) on serum lipids, apolipoproteins, and serum phospholipid fatty acids in humans, we conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel design intervention study. Healthy nonsmoking men (n = 234) aged 36-56 y were randomly assigned to dietary supplementation with 3.8 g EPA/d, 3.6 g DHA/d, or 4.0 g corn oil/d (placebo) for 7 wk. Serum triacylglycerols decreased 26% (P < 0.0001) in the DHA group and 21% (P = 0.0001) in the EPA group compared with the corn oil group. Although not significant, net decreases in serum triacylglycerols were consistently greater in the DHA group across all quartiles of baseline triacylglycerol concentrations. Serum high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol increased 0.06 mmol/L (P = 0.0002) in the DHA group. In the EPA group, serum total cholesterol decreased 0.15 mmol/L (P = 0.02) and apolipoprotein A-I decreased 0.04 g/L (P = 0.0003). In the DHA group, serum phospholipid DHA increased by 69% and EPA increased by 29%, indicating retroconversion of DHA to EPA. In the EPA group, serum phospholipid EPA increased by 297% whereas DHA decreased by 15%, suggesting that EPA is not elongated to DHA in humans. The serum phospholipid ratio of n-3 to n-6 fatty acids increased in both groups, whereas the relative changes in n-6 fatty acids suggested possible alterations in liver desaturation activity in the DHA group. We conclude that both DHA and EPA decrease serum triacylglycerols, but have differential effects on lipoprotein and fatty acid metabolism in humans.

No abstract