Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease that poses a serious problem in various countries all over the world. Implementation of various intervention strategies fail in controlling the spread of this disease due to issues of parasite drug resistance and resistance of sandfly vectors to insecticide sprays. Due to this, policy makers need to develop novel strategies or resort to a combination of multiple intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. To address this issue, we propose an extensive SIR-type model for anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis transmission with seasonal fluctuations modeled in the form of periodic sandfly biting rate. Fitting the model for real data reported in South Sudan, we estimate the model parameters and compare the model predictions with known VL cases. Using optimal control theory, we study the effects of popular control strategies namely, drug-based treatment of symptomatic and PKDL-infected individuals, insecticide treated bednets and spray of insecticides on the dynamics of infected human and vector populations. We propose that the strategies remain ineffective in curbing the disease individually, as opposed to the use of optimal combinations of the mentioned strategies. Testing the model for different optimal combinations while considering periodic seasonal fluctuations, we find that the optimal combination of treatment of individuals and insecticide sprays perform well in controlling the disease for the time period of intervention introduced. Performing a cost-effective analysis we identify that the same strategy also proves to be efficacious and cost-effective. Finally, we suggest that our model would be helpful for policy makers to predict the best intervention strategies for specific time periods and their appropriate implementation for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis.
We consider a system of delay differential equations to represent predator-prey eco-epidemic dynamics with weak Allee effect in the growth of predator population. The basic aim of the paper is to observe the dynamics of such system under the influence of gestation delay of predator and Allee parameter. We analyze essential mathematical features of the proposed model such as uniform persistence, stability and Hopf-bifurcation at the interior equilibrium point of the system. Global asymptotic stability analysis of the positive equilibrium points by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function for the delayed model is carried out separately. We perform several numerical simulations to illustrate the applicability of the proposed mathematical model and our analytical findings. We observe that the system exhibits chaotic oscillation due to increase of the delay parameter τ. We also observe that there is a threshold of Allee parameter above which the predator population will be washed away from the system.
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