The British Columbia Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) has a longestablished serosurvey protocol to monitor population susceptibility to emerging or re-emerging respiratory viruses. The approach was first deployed during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009 to monitor changes in seroprevalence across successive pandemic waves and the mass vaccination campaign. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] The methodology is predicated upon serial cross-sectional convenience sampling of anonymized residual sera from children and adults of all ages in the most populated Lower Mainland region of BC. 8,9 Adapting this protocol, the BCCDC launched its first SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey in March 2020, just before the World Health Organization's declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic. 10 Baseline assessment was followed by additional serosurveys that spanned the time from mRNA vaccine availability in mid-December 2020, through 7 pandemic waves associated with multiple variants of concern to August 2022 (Figure 1). [11][12][13] Using these serosurveys, we sought to track the evolving proportion of the population that remained
Background: The province of British Columbia (BC) has been recognized for successful SARS-CoV-2 control, with surveillance data showing amongst the lowest case and death rates in Canada. We estimate sero-prevalence for two periods flanking the start (March) and end (May) of first-wave mitigation measures in BC. Methods: Serial cross-sectional sampling was conducted using anonymized residual sera obtained from an outpatient laboratory network, including children and adults in the Greater Vancouver Area (population ~3 million) where community attack rates were expected to be highest. Screening used two chemiluminescent immuno-assays for spike (S1) and nucleocapsid antibodies. Samples sero-positive on either screening assay were assessed by a third assay targeting the S1 receptor binding domain plus a neutralization assay. Age-standardized sero-prevalence estimates were based on dual-assay positivity. The May sero-prevalence estimate was extrapolated to the source population to assess surveillance under-ascertainment, quantified as the ratio of estimated infections versus reported cases. Results: Serum collection dates spanned March 5-13 and May 15-27, 2020. In March, two of 869 specimens were dual-assay positive, with age-standardized sero-prevalence of 0.28% (95%CI=0.03-0.95). Neither specimen had detectable neutralizing antibodies. In May, four of 885 specimens were dual-assay positive, with age-standardized sero-prevalence of 0.55% (95%CI=0.15-1.37%). All four specimens had detectable neutralizing antibodies. We estimate ~8 times more infections than reported cases. Conclusions: Less than 1% of British Columbians had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 when first-wave mitigation measures were relaxed in May 2020. Our findings indicate successful suppression of community transmission in BC, but also substantial residual susceptibility. Further sero-survey snapshots are planned as the pandemic unfolds.
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