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Precision medicine (PM) offers opportunities for reducing the costs, burdens, and time associated with drug development. We examined time, number of trials, indications tested, and patient burden needed to achieve first U.S. Food and Drug Administration license for all five novel anticancer PM drugs and all 10 novel non-PM drugs receiving U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval during 2010–2014. The 15 drug portfolios encompassed 242 trials: 87 for PM drugs and 155 for non-PM drugs. Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched for all prelicensure clinical trials, and data on time, patient numbers, indications tested, and total treatment-emergent grade 3–5 adverse events were measured from the first trial of each drug. We did not find patterns suggesting greater efficiencies in PM compared with non-PM. Gains in efficiency for PM drug development may be offset by challenges with recruitment.

The emergence of immunotherapy revolutionized the treatment of non-small-cell-lung cancer (NSCLC), with multiple landmark clinical trials establishing the efficacy of these agents. However, many patients who receive immunotherapy in clinical practice would be considered clinical trial ineligible. One such population that is often under-represented in clinical trials is older adults. In the current study, we evaluated clinical and safety outcomes in this population. Overall, older adults (>70 years of age) and younger adults had comparable clinical outcomes with an equivalent objective response rate (ORR), time to treatment failure (TTF), and median overall survival (p = 0.67, p = 0.98, and p = 0.91, respectively). Furthermore, the safety outcomes were equivalent between the cohorts with similar rates of immune-related adverse events (irAEs), irAE-related hospitalizations, and all-cause hospitalization (p = 0.99, p = 0.63, and p = 0.74, respectively). While older age was not found to impact overall survival, multivariant analysis revealed that a poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) status, low body-mass-index (BMI), and poor/intermediate lung immune prognostic index (LIPI) were all associated with worse survival. In conclusion, age does not impact the efficacy or safety of pembrolizumab in NSCLC, and therefore advanced age should not be a deterrent for treating these patients with pembrolizumab. Physicians and care providers can thus focus on other factors that may influence therapeutic outcomes.

Objective To assess the accuracy of principal investigators’ (PIs) predictions about three events for their own clinical trials: positivity on trial primary outcomes, successful recruitment and timely trial completion. Study design and setting A short, electronic survey was used to elicit subjective probabilities within seven months of trial registration. When trial results became available, prediction skill was calculated using Brier scores (BS) and compared against uninformative prediction (i.e. predicting 50% all of the time). Results 740 PIs returned surveys (16.7% response rate). Predictions on all three events tended to exceed observed event frequency. Averaged PI skill did not surpass uninformative predictions (e.g., BS = 0.25) for primary outcomes (BS = 0.25, 95% CI 0.20, 0.30) and were significantly worse for recruitment and timeline predictions (BS 0.38, 95% CI 0.33, 0.42; BS = 0.52, 95% CI 0.50, 0.55, respectively). PIs showed poor calibration for primary outcome, recruitment, and timelines (calibration index = 0.064, 0.150 and 0.406, respectively), modest discrimination in primary outcome predictions (AUC = 0.76, 95% CI 0.65, 0.85) but minimal discrimination in the other two outcomes (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.57, 0.70; and 0.55, 95% CI 0.47, 0.62, respectively). Conclusion PIs showed overconfidence in favorable outcomes and exhibited limited skill in predicting scientific or operational outcomes for their own trials. They nevertheless showed modest ability to discriminate between positive and non-positive trial outcomes. Low survey response rates may limit generalizability.

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